If you are holding Cash and are following a momentum model you may be wondering what it will take before you can get back into the market.
I have taken a quick look at the charts for the Rutherford 10 assets and here’s what I see:
The above table shows the current price of each asset and my estimated target price at which momentum might become positive such that the asset would rank higher than SHY. The final column indicates the strength of the move necessay to reach that target price. These are not firm numbers but give some idea as to what we might look for going forward. Clearly, defensive positions in bonds are looking most likely to top the rankings first – but, as we know, this can change quickly. US equity markets are still looking better than international equities.
[PCY is actually ranked slightly better than SHY at present – but this could change quickly on any hesitation in price movement.]