Water Buffalo, South Africa – 2 Traders asking “What happened to the Bull Market?”
A bad week for US equities with a 3.8% weekly decline in prices:
Most of the damage came on Friday following announcements from the Jackson Hole Economic Conference and we have tentatively broken through the lower boundary of the recent bullish channel. I have drawn the boundaries of a potential new downtrend channel but this may well be a little premature – we will have to wait to see what happens next week. We are presently sitting at the bottom of the uptrend channel and at a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the upswing to the recent ~$432 high. Should the downtrend continue I might expect to see support at ~$395.
In terms of relative performance across asset classes:
US equities suffered more than most with Commodities leading as they did last week.
Current holdings in the Rutherford Portfolio look like this:
with Tranche 1 (the focus of this week’s review) only 25% invested in AOR, the benchmark fund, with the balance in Cash. Checking on performance of the portfolio:
we are managing to stay slightly ahead of the benchmark with Tranche 1 benefitting last week from the high allocation to Cash and being out of the markets.
We’ll check current rankings and recommendations from the BHS model:
where we only see a Hold recommendation for TLT – that we are not holding in Tranche 1. Despite the strong performance of DBC over the past 2 weeks and a significant amount of green showing on the DBC line in the above screenshot the longer term momentum is taking time to turn around and generate a Buy recommendation.
Let’s check the rotation graphs:
where we can see why there isn’t a lot of enthusiasm for DBC. VTI and VNQ look the most promising here so we’ll check the recommendations from a rotation model:
where we see that we are still not getting any Buy recommendations – just a recommendation to hold the shares currently held in AOR.
I am going to follow the recommendations of this model – which means that there will be no adjustments to the portfolio this week.
David
David and I are receiving multiple notifications or every time the edit is saved. Readers should receive only one notification.
You can help me if you received multiple notifications by dropping a comment to that effect. If this is happening to users, I need to find where within the plugin some is going awry.
If you received only one notification, that information is also useful.
Lowell
I received multiple notifications.
How do I attach a screenshot .png. It is for 8/25 through today, showing my ITA e-mail folder sorted as a push-down stack by date/time in descending order. All times are in Eastern.
Lee,
I’m working on the multiple notifications issue. For some reason the plugin is sending out a notification every time we save our work while working on a blog post. The notification should not go out before we request the Publish option.
Lowell
Lowell,
Thanks for your reply. For me, extra notification are better than none, so mine is not a complaint.
All the best,
Lee
Lowell,
Thanks for your reply. For me, extra notifications are better than none, so mine is not a complaint.
All the best,
Lee
PS: Something else is wrong within the messaging system. When I selected “POST COMMENT,” the first time, the system responded with a duplicate message notice; thus this is my second of two postings.
.
Hello David Thank you for continued efforts. I appreciate your work-greatly.
As I was studying the data it occurred to me that I seldom hear you talking about how to use the EMA crossovers/crossunders. I would greatly appreciate a brief tutorial one of these days if you ever have a chance to breathe given all the backtesting you are doing.
Tx John
John,
This might be answered in a post that should be published in the next few hours describing the “Rotation” Model – otherwise the EMA data is not used in the current Kipling algorithms.
Let me know if you want more clarification after you read the “Rotation” post.
David
I am receiving at least two and most time three notifications for each of the portfolio reviews. The first one or two notifications result in an error saying the URL doesn’t exist.
This morning I logged in to post this note and noticed that the “Rotation Model” blog was listed. I did not receive any notification of that post, at least not as of 6:50 AM CST August 28.
Gary
Gary,
Since the notification plugin is somewhat erratic in sending out notifications, until I have it completely figured out, it is best to check in a few times per week to see if there are any new posts.
This coming week there will be four or five blog posts going up on the site – perhaps more as we migrate from August to September so Hedgehunter will be updating numerous portfolios.
Lowell
Lowell,
I’m not receiving any notifications.
Bob Warasila
Bob,
Hmm. Notifications should be sent to your gmail address.
Would a few other readers let me know if you are or are not receiving notifications.
Lowell
Bob,
Let me know if you receive notification of the Einstein Review.
Lowell