Rutherford Portfolio Review (Tranche 1): 4 March 2022

Mexican Artist offering his Wares

US Equity markets closed down slightly from last week’s close, but not a big change as we remain in the 420-440 range in SPY:

We could still move towards either the ~470 price level to the upside or ~400 level to the downside to complete a technical price pattern that might provide a signal for the future price direction of a trend.

In comparison with other asset classes:

the performance of US equites, over the past week, falls in the middle of the pack with Commodities and Gold leading the charge.

A check on current holdings in the Rutherford Portfolio:

shows that we are currently ~60% invested in DBC and GLD and so it is not too surprising that the portfolio has performed well in recent weeks:

and is now outperforming the benchmark AOR fund despite falling significantly behind in 2021. I have stopped using TSLO orders in the management of this portfolio.

In Tranche 1 (the focus of this week’s review) I am holding positions in DBC, GLD and TIP (inflation adjusted bonds) – so we’ll check on current rankings and recommendations from the BHS model:

where see Buy recommendations only for DBC and GLD.

Checking the rotation graphs:

we see the long, strong, tails of DBC and GLD into the top right quadrant explaining the recent strong performance of these asset classes.

Recommendation from a rotation model:

are still only offering Buy recommendations for DBC and GLD. However, there is short term strength in the HA signals for VNQ, TLT and TIP – consistent with the relative strength of these asset classes in the second screenshot above.

Based on the above information I do not plan to make any adjustments to the Rutherford Portfolio before next week’s review of Tranche 2.

David