
Rock of Gibraltar
This was a weak week (double we{a}k’s) for US equities with the S&P index closing ~3 % lower than last week’s close:
Last week I noted that we had broken out of the short-term 1 SD downtrend channel but warned that we were not outside the longer term downtrend channel and certainly not into a technical uptrend until price moves outside the 2 SD channel and the prior August high at C. A potential drop to ~3200 (C) is still a definite possibility despite resistance levels at ~3600 (strong support) and 3400 (weaker support from previous support/resistance levels).
In comparison with other asset classes:
other classes clearly outperformed US equities over the past week with international equities, commodities and Gold clearly outpacing the field.
The Rutherford Portfolio is presently in a 100% Cash position, so performance looks lie this:
If we look at rankings and recommendations from the BHS model we see this:
with no recommended Buys.
Moving to the rotational data, we see the following rotation graphs:
still with nothing in the desirable top right quadrant.
Looking at the rankings/recommendations from the rotation model:
we still have no Buy recommendations – primarily as a result of the failure of any potential asset to generate a positive signal from the EMA crossovers – although VTI and VEA are showing signs of relative strength.
Consequently I will choose to stay out of the markets for at least another week.
David
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.