Rutherford Portfolio Review (Tranche 1): 4 November 2022

Rock of Gibraltar

This was a weak week (double we{a}k’s) for US equities with the S&P index closing ~3 % lower than last week’s close:

Last week I noted that we had broken out of the short-term 1 SD  downtrend channel but warned that we were not outside the longer term downtrend channel and certainly not into a technical uptrend until price moves outside the 2 SD channel and the prior August high at C. A potential drop to ~3200 (C) is still a definite possibility despite resistance levels at ~3600 (strong support) and 3400 (weaker support from previous support/resistance levels).

In comparison with other asset classes:

other classes clearly outperformed US equities over the past week with international equities, commodities and Gold clearly outpacing the field.

The Rutherford Portfolio is presently in a 100% Cash position, so performance looks lie this:

If we look at rankings and recommendations from the BHS model we see this:

with no recommended Buys.

Moving to the rotational data, we see the following rotation graphs:

still with nothing in the desirable top right quadrant.

Looking at the rankings/recommendations from the rotation model:

we still have no Buy recommendations – primarily as a result of the failure of any potential asset to generate a positive signal from the EMA crossovers – although VTI and VEA are showing signs of relative strength.

Consequently I will choose to stay out of the markets for at least another week.

David