Local Hawk looking for Dinner
US Equities closed down ~1.5% on the week with a couple of very volatile days – Thursday’s range was ~200 points in the SPX (S&P 500 Index):
However, despite this volatility we are still sitting on support at the previous pivot low at ~3600. Again, we will have wait to see whether this support holds and we see a rally into the end of the year, or whether the downtrend continues and we test lower potential support levels at 3400 or 3200.
In terms of relative performance:
US equities performed well – since none of the major asset classes showed positive returns on the week.
This means that, since the Rutherford portfolio is presently 100% in Cash:
we stayed ahead of the benchmark AOR Fund once again:
As we might expect there are no Buy recommendations from the BHS model and the rotation graphs are not encouraging:
with SHY (short-term treasuries) showing the strongest (relative) momentum/strength.
Looking at rankings and recommendations from the rotation model sheet:
we see a lot of red cells and even the top ranked assets, DBC and GLD (Commodities and Gold), although in the top right quadrant of the rotation graphs, are showing weakness in the short-term HA signals.
As a result, I will not be adding any holdings to the portfolio again this week and will stay in Cash until I see a little more encouragement.
David
am reading your 2012 posts on SA and useful background through your tests. what are HA signals? HA?Heikin ashi? will have to learn this and point and figure chart methods as well in concept.
Ken,
The HA signals are rolling n-day Heikin-Ashi candles as calculated/illustrated in the Kipling Workbook.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/jx8k8aoqmag523x/HA%202022-10-17.png?dl=0
The percentages shown in the screenshots is the size of body relative to the total range of the bar.
David
Good morning. Using a different analytical approach, the analysis in this article arrives at a similar decision reached in this article — 100% out of equities. “SPY: Hard Not To Be Bearish” or Wise To Be Bearish? Given this analysis by SA contributor Damir Tokic, I remain out of equities; here is the article link:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4546857-spy-hard-not-to-be-bearish
All the best,
– Lee Cash
Equity markets take the stairs up and the express elevator down. It looks like the doors to the top floor express elevator will soon open. Will there be an elevator car for the fast drop?
With that in mind, how rapid are the transitions from Phase 1 to Phase 2? From Phase 2 to Phase 3? After the mid-term elections, are we positioned for a sharp, ’82 style recession?
.
Lee,
Thanks for the link. Yes, I can see that, if we move into “Phase 3”, we could easily test the 2020 lows at ~2400 (also a 161.8% Fibonacci extension level – if you like Fibs 🙂 ) There isn’t a lot of obvious (technical) support below 3200. The mid-terms will be interesting – I have no idea what the reactions might be – so I remain cautious.
David
That picture at the top is certainly no Dove 🙂
Ken,
The HA signals are rolling n-day Heikin-Ashi (David, not Heineken-Asahi?)candles as calculated/illustrated in the Kipling Workbook.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/jx8k8aoqmag523x/HA%202022-10-17.png?dl=0
The percentages shown in the screenshots is the size of body relative to the total range of the bar.
“Range of/at the bar?” No one is having fun with us at the “bar?” I follow the Guinness-Doppelganger bar signal.
David
Robert