Rutherford Portfolio Review (Tranche 3): 18 March 2022

Heron, Australia

US Equities had a strong week with the S&P 500 Index ending the week ~5.5% higher than last week’s close:

Prices have broken out of the downward trend channel but are sitting at the 440-445 level that may offer strong resistance and push prices back into the channel. Volatility has dropped from the 30% range to ~ 25%.

Looking at the performance of other asset classes:

we see that equities, globally, performed strongly with the defensive commodity and gold funds falling to the bottom of the pile. This is reflected in the performance of the Rutherford Portfolio:

that gave back some of it’s recent gains from the earlier strength in commodities (DBC) and Gold (GLD). Current holdings look like this:

with shares of DBC being sold from Tranche 3 (the focus of this week’s review) on a TSLO order (that I had forgotten about). The tranche is therefore currently holding a little over $10,000 in Cash.

Checking current rankings and recommendations for the BHS model:

we see a Hold recommendation for Commodities (DBC) but no Buy recommendations.

Taking a look at the rotation graphs:

we see the recent short-term weakness in the defensive asset classes (downward movement) but no obvious strength anywhere else.

Recommendations from a rotation model look like this:

suggesting that we stick with the defensive asset classes – although there is strength in the short-term HA signals of equities and real estate.  This provides an unclear picture of where to go from here but I will add a little diversification to the portfolio by using the available Cash to purchase shares in the benchmark AOR fund:

I will also hold onto the shares currently held in VWO even though the recommendation is to Sell.  This avoids a little churning and will allow me to pick up the quarterly dividend.

David