Rutherford Portfolio Review (Tranche 4): 25 March 2022

It’s a Croc

Last week I commented that we had just broken out of the recent downtrend channel (but maybe not  far enough to feel confident that we were totally out of it) but this past week saw a continuation of the bullish “bounce”:

and US equities ended the week with a strong ~6% gain, Maybe we will see a bounce to the ~470 level and the completion of harmonic “Gartley” pattern – but we will still need to see enough strength to get through the potential resistance zone at ~458. Volatility has also continued to fall and is now down to the ~22% level.

The strength in US equities was matched by the performance of international equities with commodities and gold showing relative weakness.

and this is reflected in the overall performance of the Rutherford portfolio:

that had a relatively quiet week but still stays ahead of the benchmark AOR fund.

Checking current rankings and recommendations from the BHS model:

we see that DBC and GLD are still the recommended Buys.

Since these ETFs are currently held in Tranche 4 (the focus of this week’s review):

I need to decide what to do with my holdings in international equities (VEA and VWO) that are showing short term strength (positive HA signals) but still lagging a little over the longer term. In search of additional clues I check the rotation graphs:

and recommendations:

without getting a lot of inspiration.

As I did last week I think that I will retreat to a little more diversification and Sell my current positions in VEA and VWO and use the Cash to add shares in the benchmark AOR fund:

David