A comment or question was posed that involved using information from the Buy-Hold-Sell Recommendation worksheet. Since the Curie is up for review this week it makes sense to use it to illustrate how one might reason through the information found in this particular worksheet.
Buy-Hold-Sell Recommendations for Curie: The first thing I look at in the following worksheet is the 195-Day EMA column. I run my eyes down that column to see if there are any Sell recommendations – and there always are. First stop at EMB. This is an emerging market bond so I slot it in the International Bond asset class. If I want to hold any shares in EMB I will hang on to these five (5) even though the optimizer is telling me to sell. Five shares is too few to mess with so I’ll likely do nothing. Were I to make a decision that I don’t intend to ever hold this ETF, I would sell the five shares and be done with it.
PCY is one of those conflicting ETFs where the optimizer is telling me to add another 62 shares to the portfolio even though my ITARR model is telling me to sell. Looking at the Rankings worksheet I see where PCY has a -45% momentum ranking. No thanks – I’m not adding more shares and I will sit on the existing 10 shares. The same goes for DBC. I’ll use the same reasoning to do nothing. What about BND? I hold those five (5) shares so I can come up with a calculation for the ITA Index. Again, I do nothing.
VWO is one where the ITARR model and the optimizer are telling me to reduce shares. The question is not whether to sell, but how many shares. I may sell as many as 300 to 500 shares. The same thinking goes for VNQ. That takes care of the selling if one is following the ITARR model.
What about buying? Once more, this is a high market so I will be patient. The prime candidates for purchase are: VHT, VBK, VIS, VTV, and and VFH. Before making any moves I will go to the Rankings worksheet, not shown here, and check the momentum percentages. All show percentages above 50% with VBK running a very high 84%. I like those numbers and I will want to recheck them when the Curie comes up for review. I’ll more than likely be using some available cash to pick up shares in several of these ETFs.
This is some of my thinking as I attempt to bring a portfolio into line with the ITA Risk Reduction model and the Momentum-Optimization Model.
If you have questions, please ask.