Rutherford Portfolio Review (Tranche 2): 20 January 2023

Chinese New Year in Singapore – 2023, Year of the Rabbit

It’s the year of the Rabbit and we’re hopping around tentatively trying to find a direction for the markets in 2023:

I’ve updated the trend channels in the above figure, since these are somewhat discretionary, but it is not clear whether we are still in a downtrend (sitting at the top of the downtrend channel) or maybe entering a new uptrend (sitting at the bottom of the short-term uptrend channel). I cannot declare trend change (from down to up) until we take out the ~4100 high in the SPX that we hit in early December.

On the week, US equities were down ~1.2% and were the poorest performing major asset class:

with Commodities (DBC) and Emerging Markets (PCY and VWO) leading the way.

Current holdings in the Rutherford Portfolio look like this:

and performance like this:

i.e. we are continuing to stay ahead of the benchmark AOR Fund in the early stages of the year.

Checking the rotation graphs:

we see continuing strength in VEA and VWO although PCY and RWX are weakening in the short term (up/down movement).

Recommendations from the rotation model look like this:

with Buy recommendations for VEA, VWO and GLD, a Hold recommendation for RWX and a Sell suggestion for AOR. Consequently I will sell the current holdings in AOR in Tranche 2 (the focus of this week’s review) and adjust like this:

since it costs me nothing in commissions to Buy any of these ETFs.

David