Forgotten Oregon: Old General Store in Central Oregon.
“Realistic market expectations are important to investment planning.” – Richard A. Ferri
Einstein is the Sector BPI portfolio up for review this morning. Before moving into the analysis there are a few comments I need to make about this portfolio. The Einstein carries more cash than is customary as the owner faces educational expenses later this year.
ESGV has a 3% TSLO in place to sell all 165 shares. Non-sector investments will concentrate on VTI and VOO. I’m moving in this direction with all the Sector BPI portfolios.
The Einstein has only been using the Sector BPI model for 5.5 months so we don’t have much historical data. This portfolio has not been performing all that well and for that reason I am publishing a portfolio report (5th screenshot) so readers gain a glimpse as to how well the portfolio is performing under this model.
Einstein Investment Quiver and Current Holdings
Below is the investment quiver and current holdings for the Einstein. Over 34% is in cash or a sizable block of the account. The hope is to stabilize this portfolio sometime in 2025 to where it will be fully invested in stock ETFs.
When Utilities (VPU) dropped into the oversold zone a few weeks ago I was too cautious and did not populate the Max AA to the 9.8% recommended value. Limit orders are still in place for VPU, but it will require some retracement before these limit orders are struck.
Einstein Manual Risk Adjustments
The following manual risk adjustment worksheet shows the sale of ESGV and the eventual VPU purchases. Otherwise, no changes are planned for the Einstein.
Einstein Performance Data
Since 12/31/2021 the Einstein lags the SPY benchmark by a sizable margin. The performance is a little better compared to the other potential benchmarks, but still lags the worst performer, AOR.
Einstein Risk Ratios
The Information Ratio is quite instructive in that we see the Einstein consistently lagged the SPY benchmark nearly every month over the past year. We see a slight improvement in the Jensen Alpha since last February, but even here the increase is quite modest.
Einstein Sector Performance Report
If we check out the Sector BPI investing model during the period the Einstein used it, the IRR values are very close. This is encouraging yet not overwhelming. If the model works we should see better results by the middle of 2025.
I’ve not been able to get the Contact page working properly so I deleted it. If you need to contact me, do so using this e-mail.
itawealth@comcast.net
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