Rutherford Portfolio Review (Tranche 4): 18 February 2022

Archaeological Rock Formations, Burren Centre, Ireland

Apologies for being a little slow with this week’s review but I am in Mexico and have been having a few internet problems. However, we’ll start, as usual, with a look at the performance of US equities over the past week:

Without having to adjust any of the “projection” lines on the chart we see that the market closed at around the 61.8% retracement levels from the recent pivot high at point C after a brief penetration through the potential support area. The overall picture hasn’t changed and we will have to wait and see whether we get a bounce towards the D3 level before a further decline to ~$400 (SPY).

Because of technical problems I don’t have my usual comparison with other asset classes, but from a check of performance in the Rutherford Portfolio:

it is clear that other asset classes have outperformed US equities. In particular, Gold (GLD) had a strong week and was well represented in all tranches of the Rutherford:

So we’ll check current rankings and recommendations from the BHS model:

where the only Buy recommendations are for DBC (Commodities) and GLD.

Taking a look at the rotation graphs:

we see very strong relative momentum in DBC and GLD with VWO not too far behind (re-enforcing last week’s recommendations).

A check of recommendations from the rotation model:

suggests the addition of VWO and VEA to the recommendations of GLD and DBC from the BHS model. Consequently, I will use the available Cash in Tranche 4 (~$9,000) to add shares of VEA and VWO to the portfolio:

David