With no Bullish Percent Indicators positioned in either the over-bought or over-sold zones, I could have skipped this update of the Carson. No changes are required at this time. There is one change in the Sector BPI model that I’ll explain in a moment and it has to do with how one determines the maximum to invest in any given sector ETF.
Carson Investment Quiver of Sectors
The primary change is related to how one determines the maximum percentage to invest in a particular sector. From past observations, Energy and Technology were the most volatile and that is why I set 25% as the maximum for each. That got me to thinking. Instead of flying by intuition, why not use mathematics as the Standard Deviation material is available.
The percentages you see below are 0.75% of the three-year Standard Deviation or Annualized Volatility. I then rounded that the nearest percentage. As you can see, Energy (VDE) and Technology (VGT) come in at or close to 25%. So does VCR. Use these Max AA percentages as guidelines. Don’t be a slave to the percentages.
Please excuse the absence of the Descriptions as the ITA downloading file is still not working properly within the Kipling spreadsheet.
Carson Performance Data
The following data is from the beginning of 2022 through the current date. Instead of concentrating on all the red, check how the Carson has performed against all the possible benchmarks.