Rutherford Portfolio Review (Tranche 1): 9 February 2024

Pelicans, Cairns, Australia

US Equities continued their steady climb this week hitting new all-time highs at the close on Friday:

Since we are at all-time highs, with no obvious indications of the next resistance level, the best I can do is look at the 100% Fibonacci extension from the November lows – that suggests possible resistance at~5200 if we can continue this bullish trend.

In terms of performance relative to other major asset classes US equities again appears near the top of the List:

only being beaten out by Emerging Market equities and commodities.

Current holdings in the Rutherford Portfolio look like this:

with a strong bias towards equities. However, in Tranche 1 (the focus of this week’s review) we see holdings in Real Estate. Checking on performance:

we see a general reflection of the trend of the benchmark – so let’s see what the rotation graphs are saying and whether any adjustments are recommended:

From the rotation graphs we note that only VTI (US Equities) is sitting in the desirable top right quadrant of the graph so we’ll take a look at what the rotation algorithm is recommending:

where we note that only VTI is recommended as a Buy, with VEA getting a Hold recommendation (since we currently have a position in this ETF). Real Estate and Bonds look out of favor so adjustments for this week will look something like this:

where I shall be selling current holdings in VNQ and RWX and using the proceeds to Buy shares in AOR (the benchmark fund). I will not add more shares of VEA since the recommendation is to Hold rather than Buy.