It’s the year of the Rabbit and we’re hopping around tentatively trying to find a direction for the markets in 2023:
I’ve updated the trend channels in the above figure, since these are somewhat discretionary, but it is not clear whether we are still in a downtrend (sitting at the top of the downtrend channel) or maybe entering a new uptrend (sitting at the bottom of the short-term uptrend channel). I cannot declare trend change (from down to up) until we take out the ~4100 high in the SPX that we hit in early December.
On the week, US equities were down ~1.2% and were the poorest performing major asset class:
with Commodities (DBC) and Emerging Markets (PCY and VWO) leading the way.
Current holdings in the Rutherford Portfolio look like this:
and performance like this:
i.e. we are continuing to stay ahead of the benchmark AOR Fund in the early stages of the year.
Checking the rotation graphs:
we see continuing strength in VEA and VWO although PCY and RWX are weakening in the short term (up/down movement).
Recommendations from the rotation model look like this:
with Buy recommendations for VEA, VWO and GLD, a Hold recommendation for RWX and a Sell suggestion for AOR. Consequently I will sell the current holdings in AOR in Tranche 2 (the focus of this week’s review) and adjust like this:
since it costs me nothing in commissions to Buy any of these ETFs.