Modoc National Forest Hiking Trail*
Since the stock market is closed on Monday, I’ll update the Carson this morning and then see what the recommendations are for the various sectors when the Franklin is updated mid-week. The one change this week was the drop of Real Estate into the over-sold zone.
Carson BPI Recommendations
Three sectors are over-sold and the Carson already held shares in Energy and Technology. On Friday I purchased 95 shares of VNQ and have a TSLO set to pick up the final 45 shares.
Carson Portfolio Adjustments
The maximum I wish to hold in any of the three sectors in the Buy zone is 25%. In the following table you see the Carson holds 25% in VDE, 23% in VGT, and plan to hold 24% in VNQ.
We have yet to see situations where more sectors are in the Buy zone than we have available cash. When such a situation arises adjustments or decision will be made to fit the situation.
Carson Performance Data
The following data runs from 11/30/2020 through 12/23/2022 or one month more than two years. For most of this period the Carson was the Carson LRPC model. From a month ago, the Carson widened its lead on the AOA benchmark. Will the Carson be able to outperform the SPY or S & P 500? That will be the true test for the BPI investing mode.
Carson Risk Ratios
The December 2022 Jensen is the highest value over the past year. That is a positive sign, but still much too early to draw any useful conclusions. The Information Ratio is also the highest it has been over the past year.
*The original photograph was enhanced slightly using On1 Photo RAW software. To convert the image to the above painting I used a software program titled, Dynamic Auto Painter.
Carson Portfolio: Creating A New Investing Model
New Carson Launched: 4 November 2022
Carson Portfolio Update: 18 November 2022
Discover more from ITA Wealth Management
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Curious your thoughts on whether this is the macro environment to be close to 100% invested? Or does the model take the macro into account with its cash, SCHP, I and SHV recommendations?
Rob,
With the Federal Reserve still in the mode of increasing interest rates I am reluctant to recommend 100% in stocks. Particularly for a retiree.
If the investor is in the saving mode, then it is different. See the Copernicus portfolio.
Since this question was asked in relation to the Carson portfolio, I would simply follow the investing rules. Right now the Carson is holding about 80% in stocks and 20% in Cash, Short-Term Treasuries, and TIPs.
Lowell