Carson Portfolio Review: 8 November 2023

Access to Pier 39

Carson is the oldest ITA portfolio using the Sector BPI Plus investing model and as such will include more performance details in the following review.  Two sectors remain in the oversold zone and they are:  Materials (VAW) and Staples (VDC).  Both are fully populated as readers will see in the following update.

Carson Investment Quiver and Holdings

The following table lays out the Carson investment quiver and current holdings.  Based on past oversold signals the Carson is holding shares in all the eleven sectors.  Energy (VDE) is overbought and if the Carson held more than one share a Trailing Stop Loss Order would be set.  As it is, nothing is required.

Run your eyes from the Strategic or Max AA column over to the far right-hand column to see if the sectors are fully populated.  As you can see, both VAW and VDC meet this requirement or recommendation.

Carson Manual Risk Adjustments

Since both oversold sectors (Materials and Staples) are fully populated and none of the three U.S. Equities indicate a Buy, we do nothing with the Carson.  The $4,700 will rest in the money market account, waiting for a Buy recommendation.

Carson Performance Data

Over the past 22 plus months the Carson continues to maintain a substantial lead on the SPY benchmark.

Carson Risk Ratios

The following risk ratio table provides more specific information as to how well the Carson is performing.  Over the past year the Jensen Alpha continues to register a high number and we see improvement since October.  The same holds true for the Information Ratio.

The slope of the Jensen is still negative and that is something to pay attention to.  This could change once the high November and December values from 2022 are cleared the slope could flip to positive.

Carson Sector Portfolio Report

As the oldest running Sector BPI portfolio I’m able to post a Performance Report on the Carson.  What is this table telling us?

What I’ve done, and this data comes out of the Investment Account Manager software, is to analyze the performance of a sector only portfolio since the beginning of 2023.  A sector only Carson portfolio generated an IRR of 31.1% while the SPY returned 17.1% over the same period.

The Carson did not actually perform this well as the portfolio held shares in VTI, VOO, SPY, and ESGV over these ten plus months.  While Staples (VDC) lost money, we are not finished with this sector as it is currently oversold and we are currently holding shares in this market space.

The following table proves early evidence that the Sector BPI model is working.

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