Carson Sector BPI Portfolio Review: 2 September 2025

Three Wheeler from Cutsforth Cruise In

September opens with a review of the Carson Sector BPI portfolio, one of the better performing accounts monitored here at ITA.  As equities rise or are holding at a high level, it has been many weeks since we last observed a sector in the oversold zone.  This is a time for patience as we are going to eventually see a draw-down to where one or more of the eleven sectors will provide a buying opportunity.

The current market is one that tests the Sector BPI hypothesis.  In “normal” times one would invest “non-sector” funds in VOO or a similar broad equity ETF.  Dollars not working in one or more sectors would be put to use by investing in the broad market.  But these are anything but normal times.  The U.S. Equities market is over-valued and tariffs have yet to smack down the market.  It seems as if investors are counting on the “TACO President” operating true to form and are pressing forward as if all is golden.

Industries that rely on discretionary money are down indicating the general populace is hanging on to their money.  Higher grocery prices are also eating into discretionary spending.  When Buffett is holding billions in cash it makes sense for ITA to hold hundreds in short-term treasuries.

Carson Security Holdings

The Carson holds only one sector ETF, consumer staples.  Instead of investing non-sector money in the S&P 500, I am placing it in short-term treasuries (SHV).  This morning I purchased another five (5) shares with available cash.

Carson Performance Data

The cautious approach is have a small negative impact on performance.  Even so, since 12/31/2021 the Carson is besting all benchmarks, but the gap is closing.

Carson Risk Ratios

On a risk adjusted basis the Carson is not keeping pace with the benchmark.  We see this in both the Jensen and Information Ratios.  Pay most attention to the August data as it is too soon to rely on September information.  The risk metrics are above their April lows so that is positive.

William Bernstein Recommends Saving More and Spending Less