There are two reasons for posting this blog. With Recession in the title, readers a year from now can Google the word and come up with this post showing when ITA was sounding the alarm for the coming recession – or worse. In fact, I
Dirac Portfolio Review: 4 August 2025
Since my last review on 18 July I have made a few adjustments to the Dirac Portfolio especially as a result of last Friday’s weakness in the US equity markets – since this portfolio is totally focused on these markets:
Buffett Indicator & Shiller PE Ratio
Canyonland National Park Over the last few weeks I’ve been setting Trailing Stop Loss Orders (TSLOs) for VTI, VOO, and SCHG when portfolios holding these securities come up for review. The tariff wars are causing market uncertainty, but tariffs are not the only reason for setting TSLOs. Erratic administration behavior
How Risky is Your Portfolio? – Another Perspective
Last week, Lowell posted a blog asking the question “How Risky is Your Portfolio?” and reminded us that portfolio returns are a function of the expected returns from the assets in our “quiver” and the risk associated with these assets as represented by their volatility. I thought
How Risky Is Your Portfolio? May 2021
Portfolio risk is a subject I’ve written about in prior blog posts. It is particularly important now that U.S. Equities are hovering around all time highs and we are entering the summer months when the stock market tends to generate
“Markowitz” Projections During Great Recession
Readers who have been following the discussion on future return projections will find the following information of interest. Using the Hoadley “Efficient Frontier” software, I set out to see what the optimal projections would be for three different time periods. In each case I selected two years of historical data
ITARR: How To Reduce Losses
Zion National Park On page 167 of Mebane T. Faber and Eric W. Richardson’s book, “The Ivy Portfolio: How to Invest Like the Top Endowments and Avoid Bear Markets” we read, “Our research has shown that returns are lower and volatility is higher when asset classes are below
ETF Rankings: VEU and IDV Lose Ground
Two international ETFs lost ground over the last few trading days. Both VEU and IDV are now performing below SHY as Platinum members can see from the rankings table shown below. ETF Rankings: Based on the following data we will continue to lower allocations to asset classes such as
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