Male bluebird on Hope Village campus
Carson is the oldest Sector BPI portfolio, going back to 11/1/2022. This morning Materials moved into the oversold zone so I added shares of VAW to the Carson. The Carson is currently holding shares in seven of the eleven sectors.
This morning I asked ChatGPT this question.
“Where can I find example portfolios illustrating the Sector BPI investing model?” Here is the answer to this question.
You can find some of the best real-world examples of the Sector BPI investing model on the ITA Wealth Management blog run by Lowell Herr and in related articles on Seeking Alpha.
Here are the most useful starting points:
- ITA Wealth Management – Sector BPI articles search
Use the site search for “Sector BPI.” This is the primary source for ongoing portfolio examples. - Carson Portfolio: Creating A New Investing Model – Sector BPI
This article explains the original framework, including:- oversold/overbought rules,
- ETF sector selection,
- trailing stop-loss rules,
- cash management using SHV/SCHP,
- and portfolio allocation logic.
- Carson Sector BPI Portfolio Review: 14 February 2025
One of the clearest ongoing examples showing:- actual holdings,
- buy/sell triggers,
- performance vs. SPY,
- and how the model evolved over time.
- Gauss Sector BPI Portfolio Review: 25 October 2024
Shows a variation of the model using international ETFs like VEA and VWO in addition to sector ETFs. - Tweaking Sector BPI Plus Investing Model: Part II
Very helpful operational walk-through of how the model is managed step-by-step using BPI data and volatility weighting. - Seeking Alpha – Buy Low Sell High Using Sector BPI Investing Model
Gives a broader explanation of the philosophy and performance rationale behind the approach. - Seeking Alpha – Sector Bullish Percent Indicator Investing Model: An S&P 500 Beater
Discusses the model’s risk controls, review frequency, and sector allocation methodology.
Typical ETFs used in these portfolios include:
- Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT or sector equivalents)
- Vanguard Energy ETF
- Vanguard Materials ETF
- Vanguard Real Estate ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF
- Schwab U.S. TIPS ETF
The core rules repeated across the examples are:
- Buy sectors when Bullish Percent Indicators fall to roughly 30% or below.
- Use trailing stops once sectors move above ~70%.
- Hold excess cash in short-term Treasuries/TIPS or broad-market ETFs.
- Rebalance based on sector volatility and breadth data.
Carson Sector Holdings
Contrary to an overbought market, the Carson Sector BPI portfolio is full of sector ETF holdings. What is happening is that different sectors are dropping into the oversold zone and I have been buying shares on the drop. One of the basic Sector BPI rules is to purchase shares of the ETF that mirrors the sector when the BPI
data drops below the 30% level. I will not be surprised if more sectors were to move down into the oversold zone and stay below the overbought (70% or higher) zone for many months.
The Carson holds 876 shares of SCHO and should I need cash to purchase sectors I can always sell shares of SCHO to raise the necessary cash. In the meantime SCHO throws off nearly 4% in dividends or interest.
Carson Performance Data
Since 12/31/2021 the Carson has managed to outperform all tracked benchmarks. Call it a dead heat with the S&P 500 (SPY).
The following data comes from the Investment Account Manager software program, a commercial product.
Carson Risk Ratios
When risk enters the analysis equation the Jensen Performance Index, many times referred to as the Jensen Alpha, is a very high 6.9. Anything above zero is considered excellent.
Based on the Information Ratio, the Carson has gradually lost ground to the AOR benchmark. That is why the slope of the Jensen is negative.
Carson Sector Performance
In the following table one can see how the Carson has performed when using the Sector BPI investment management model. Note how much better the Carson IRR is performing with respect to the S&P 500. The difference is stark. Unfortunately the Carson was not using the Sector BPI model for the full year of 2022. Remember what a poor year that was for investing.
While I am extremely high on the Sector BPI investing model, I want to see how well it performs during an extended recession period. That will be a true test of the model. There is no good way to back-test this model as the variables are extensive and in most cases the data is simply not available. The best one can due is to add new data each month.
Here are links to other Sector BPI portfolio examples.
McClintock Sector BPI Portfolio Review: 5 May 2026
McClintock Sector BPI Portfolio Review: 9 October 2025
Franklin Sector BPI Portfolio Review: 20 March 2026
Discover more from ITA Wealth Management
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Leave a Comment or Question