Darwin 2026 Portfolio Review: 15 May 2026

Botanic Gardens, Singapore

Yet another week with new all-time highs in the US Equity markets:

After breaking through the potential resistance level of ~7400 on Wednesday, Thursday saw a strong move to the 7500 level where it hit new resistance at this phsychologically important (big round number) level. This may well be an example of a “blow-off” top and/or simply short covering by traders who were short at levels in the 7400-7500 range – although volume was only average and not significantly high. Friday saw a significant drop resulting in a pullback to the ~7400 level and a close only ~0.2% above last week’s close. An “investor” not checking markets regularly would simply think it was an uneventful week.

Compared to other major market asset classes:

this was relatively strong performance with the exception of Commodities/Oil (DJP) that jumped ~2.3%. All other major asset classes closed in negative territory with Emerging Markets being hardest hit with a 4.2% loss.

The Darwin Portfolio performed well until Friday’s sell-off:

… so let’s take a look at adjustments that were made this week (red box):

On Tuesday, shares of VNQ (US Real Estate) were sold out of the portfolio – as anticipated in last week’s review – with ~$500 profit as momentum (lying below it’s Wilder Moving Average) dropped into negative territory:

This , in hindsight, was a good decision as all indicators dropped significantly going into the end of the week.

The VNQ position was replaced, on Wednesday, by an equal allocation to shares in SCHF (Developed Market Equities) that was looking bullish at the time:

with positive acceleration, and momentum moving above it’s Wilder Moving Average (green circles). This hurt on Friday, with the sharp pullback – but that’s investment/trading – win some, lose some 🙂

With the collapse on Friday I also chose to close out the strongest asset class of the week (Commodities) and to lock in a small profit as acceleration dropped into the negative zone with momentum, although still in positive territory, below it’s Wilder Moving Average.:

The analysis sheet is still showing  a moderate Momentum Buy recommendation for DJP with positive MACD and RSI indicators – although MACD is teetering at the zero level:

It is not clear how Commodities might perform in the future so I will step aside and watch – I can always re-enter if the longer term bullish trend looks like it might continue.

The portfolio stays ahead of it’s benchmark performing at about the same level over the past couple of weeks. I am presently only ~60% invested in this portfolio with ~40% in Cash (BIL), so this is OK.