Iguana Lunching at Restaurant, Nuevo Vallarta, Mexico
US Equities continue their consolidation pattern in the 6800-7000 range of the SPX (S&P500 Index) with a 1.1% gain from last week’s close:
This leaves them in the middle of the pack of major asset classes in terms of performance over the past week:
Commodities led the way with Bonds showing a small loss.
Analysis of the Darwin Portfolio shows the following recommendations:
and, although I was holding positions in all the recommended Buy and Hold suggestions I made a small adjustment by selling 61 shares of EEM (locking in ~$400 in profit) and adding 98 shares of TLT.
This brings the holdings closer to being equally weighted as per my goal:
Performance of the portfolio, since inception, looks like this:
with a nice lead over the benchmark AOA Fund.
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Hello David. I was revisiting momentum strategies, and was wondering whether you have considered the simple system Karsten at ERN is proposing with just three asset classes (plus cash) and twelve equally weighted momentum signals for each asset class, His 150 years backtest looks very good indeed: https://earlyretirementnow.com/2025/11/12/momentum-trend-following-swr-series-part-63/
David,
I’ve done a quick scan of the ERN link and will take a deeper dive when I return from vacation next week. When I have a better understanding of the system I will address your question in more detail.
David (HedgeHunter)
OK David, thank you. To be clear, his purpose is not necessarily to seek max performance, but rather to improve the risk-adjusted return of the buy-and-hold portfolio to mitigate sequence of returns risk in retirement. It would be interesting to compare the long-term performance of his system to a backtest of the momentum portfolios you have used over the years. Enjoy your vacations!