Darwin 2026 Portfolio Review: 6 March 2026

Decadent Dessert Plate at Dinner Show, Cirque Du Soleil, Vidanta World, Nuevo Vallarta, Mexico

It was a tough week for US Equiies with significant weakness on Tuesday and continuation to the end of the week that resuted in the SPX (S&P 500 Index) closing ~2% lower than last week’s close:

The SPX has finally closed below the lower boundary of the 6800-7000 sideways consolidation channel that we have been trading in for the past ~2+ months and I can finally start looking at a potential bearish channel (pale blue background) starting from the ~7000 highs on ~28 January – but this is very tentative at this point. However, current price levels (~6750) are sitting on the major resistance level established at the end of November 2025 and the 50% retracement from the November lows/January 2026 highs  – so a critical support level. A close below ~6700 would suggest a continuation of the current weakness and a possible return to the November 2025 lows of ~6500 or a ~7% correction from the highs.

In terms of performance relative to other major asset classes:

Over the past week, US equities help up fairly well (depite the ~2% loss), only to be outpaced by the performance of Commodities (particularly Oil) resulting from political tensions in the Middle East.

The volatility over the past week led to me making some adjustments to the Darwin Portfolio. The current analysis sheet is looking like this:

with Momentum Buy Signals only for IAU (Gold), DJP (Commodities), VNQ (US Real Estate) and TLT (US Trasuries). International Equities generated Sell recommendations with US Equities suggesting a possible (bottom fishing) Mean Reversion Buy position.

As a result of these recommendations I made the following trades:

i.e. I sold positions in SCHF (Developed Market Equities) and EEM (Emerging Market Equities) to lock in ~$1,660 profits.

This leaves my current recommended portfolio allocations looking like this:

or somewhat under-allocated based on my goal of remaing close to fully invested. In this volatile environment I am comfortable with this until it becomes clearer whether we see continued weakness (resulting from political uncertainties) or a return to bullish sentiment (if there should be a quick solution to the tensions in the Middle East and the tariff wars).

I have made a minor modification to my algorithm for managing this momentum/mean reversion system by adding a confirmatory signal to the analysis.  This modification includes the addition of a Wilder smoothing filter to the momentum graphs. This can be seen in the following graphs for SPYM (the suggested Mean Reversion Buy signal):

where we can see that momentum (blue line) has just crossed above the 14-period Wilder Moving Average of the momentum (brown line). Should price trade above the prior day’s close (that it failed to do on Friday) then I will open a new position in SPYM (US Equities), assuming acceleration (green line) remains positive, based on a possible reversion to the mean. At that point I will also make a decision as to whether to rebalance allocations so as to remain fully invested.

At present I am sitting with ~$29,500 ( 25%+) in Cash (BIL):

Portfolio performance to date is looking like this:

or still ~10% above the performance of the benchmark AOA Fund – that is close to being flat up to this point in the year.