McClintock Sector BPI Portfolio Review: 10 March 2025

Rusting passenger car located in Astoria, OR.

“Don’t look for the needle in the haystack. Just buy the haystack!” — John Bogle

McClintock was not schedule for a review this early in the month.  However, the move of Technology into the oversold zone requires attention.  Thus the update of the McClintock this morning.

The threat of tariffs is causing uncertainty within the equities market and we all know business does not appreciate uncertainty.  News is that investors are moving money toward dividend paying securities.  I am doing the same by investing more and more cash in the SHV Exchange Traded Fund (ETF).

The prediction is that GDP will go negative this quarter.  The old definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative Gross Domestic Product.  The definition has now changed and is in the hands of a board.

“A recession is a sustained decline in economic activity that affects the entire economy and lasts more than a few months. It’s characterized by: A decrease in GDP (real output), A rise in unemployment, A decline in real income, A decline in industrial production, and A decline in consumer spending. 

McClintock Sector BPI Portfolio Holdings

McClintock holds the following Exchange Traded Funds.  I sold shares of VTI and VOO to raise cash to purchase shares of VGT.  The general argument behind the Sector BPI model is that a slice (sector) of the broad market, when oversold, will rise faster than the broad market.  Broad market is defined by the S&P 500 where we use SPY as the broad market benchmark.

We now have five of the eleven sectors oversold.  I checked the BPI data moments ago and no other sectors dropped into the oversold zone.

With five sectors in the McClintock this will be a good check to see how well the Sector BPI model operates in the midst of chaos.

McClintock Rebalancing Recommendations

The McClintock is nearly in balance.  I have a limit order in place to pick up one share of Health (VHT).

McClintock Performance Data

Since 12/31/2021 the McClintock lags the SPY benchmark by a few percentage, but not trivial, points.  It is besting four of the six benchmarks shown below.  This data comes from the Investment Account Manager software, a commercial portfolio tracking program.

McClintock Risk Ratios

McClintock has been operating under the Sector BPI model for about 1.5 years.  Nearly all this time the portfolio lagged the benchmark, but it has shown improvement over the last few months.  A positive Sortino Ratio indicates the portfolio is slowly adding profits, but not by much.

The slope of the Jensen is essentially flat.  One goal over the next six months is to flip the slope into positive territory.

If you are seeking a website of someone who has a level head and their explanations are simple and clear, look no further than Rob Berger.  Here is the link to many of his YouTube presentations.  Berger’s advice does not deviate too far from what I am suggesting here at ITA.