BNSF Train – Central Oregon
Bullish Percent Indicators ended the month of March on an uptick. Every major index and sector is bullish. Only Real Estate remains over-sold with 30% bullish. It appears as if we now are in a “quiet” period for Sector BPI management as cash is minimal having been used to pick up shares of over-sold sectors. We now wait for the sector ETFs to rise into the Sell zone. Should this happen in the coming weeks I will institute Trailing Stop Loss Orders. Should the market decline to where sectors will fall back into the over-sold zone, I will look at the cash position and make purchase decisions. Cash will only be available if owners add cash to the portfolio or dividends show up.
Index BPI
All indexes are bullish. Most of the percentages are hovering around the 50% level so the market is fairly valued. This is quite a change since the end of last September.
Check the left side of the table to see the percentage point jumps since last week.
Sector BPI
As with the indexes, all sectors are bullish. See the right-hand side of the following table. On the left side we see Real Estate is still over-sold as 30% of the stocks in this sector are bullish. If next week is bullish Real Estate will likely exit the over-sold zone.
Assuming I’ve used all available cash in the four Sector BPI portfolios, we now enter a waiting game. I don’t expect any sectors to rise into the over-bought zone this week so I don’t plan to update any of the Sector BPI portfolios. Should there be any Buy or Sell action from the sector BPI table I will spring into action.
Explaining the Hypothesis of the Sector BPI Model
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Lowell,
I’m currently holding positions in 8 sectors.
Bob W.
Bob W.,
I need to check, but I think seven is the maximum number of sectors I hold in any single portfolio.
You are well positioned to take advantage of any market movement.
Lowell
Lowell,
Of the 3 portfolios one didn’t have enough cash to be fully exposed but 2 out of 3 is OK for me:^ )
Bob W.
Bob W.
Keep track of IRR performance as I’m interested in how someone else, using the model, finds it useful or a bust.
Lowell
Staples (VDC) moved into the over-bought zone this morning. Whether it remains there after all the stock data is in today remains unknown. Since none of the ITA Sector BPI portfolios hold VDC the issue is moot. It may be different for other readers so stay tuned for information tomorrow.
Energy (VDE) is close with a BPI reading of 69.56%. I will likely place a 3% TSLO on VDE tomorrow.
Lowell
Lowell,
My annual IRR for my 2022 Sectors was 5.68%. My YTD Sectors is 4.3%. I’ll see what oil is doing tomorrow. I may put in a 2% TSOL for VDE BUT since being close to but not at 30% on the buy side of the sectors not having a good history, I may wait for the >= 70% signal. A work in progress as we say:^ )
BTW the IRR’s are from IAM.
Bob W.
Bob W.,
I’d say anything positive for 2022 is a success.
All my IRR values are also from the IAM software.
When you state your sectors are 4.3% YTD, can I assume this is not annualized? My four Sector BPI portfolios when using the IRR for the period (YTD) come in at 7.0%.
I was not operating all four Sector BPI for all of 2022 so I don’t have useful information.
Lowell
Lowell,
Annualized return is 10.8%, the 4.3% is January – March. There were some sales carried forward into January from previous purchases. Let me paly a little more with separating the periods and get back to the list.
Bob W.
Lowell,
I’m not sure how to enter the data for an IRR that is not for the year or for a quarter, those are the selections built into the menu.. Ideally I would like to calculate for June 23, 2022 to the current date.
Bob W.
Bob,
Until one of the last two or three updates, the IAM kept daily data. One had to go back into the daily data and delete it if one did not wish to keep it. Now the IAM software only maintains monthly data. At least I don’t know how to maintain daily historical data.
In your case, just measure the performance from June 30, 2022 until the current date and you will come very close to the performance you are looking for.
Lowell