Carson Portfolio Update: 10 April 2023

DC 3

Carson is the portfolio up for review this morning.  Based on Bullish Percent Indicator data from last week, no Buy or Sell orders are called for other than the Trailing Stop Loss Order (TSLO) recommended for Energy (VDE).  Regular readers have already digested this information.  I set TSLOs for VDE in every Sector BPI portfolio that held this ETF.  Since launching the Carson, VDE is the first TSLO or Sell setting.

Carson Investment Quiver and Holdings

Below is the list of sector ETFs and the number of shares held in each for the Carson portfolio.  I prefer using Vanguard sector ETFs while others may prefer to use iShares.  Either should work fine with the Sector BPI model.

There was insufficient cash available when Real Estate (VNQ) dipped into the over-sold zone so I missed that opportunity to purchase shares before the sector moved back into the neutral zone.  The neutral zone is defined as >30% bullish to <70% bullish.

Carson Performance Data

Over the past 15 months the Carson opened up a substantial lead on the S&P 500 (SPY) as well as AOA and AOR, two other possible benchmarks.  The last three indexes are now part of a default list since the last update of the IAM software.

Investors interested in the Sector BPI model will find the following data of interest.  Using the IAM software I wanted to see what the Internal Rate of Return for the Period was for each of the invested ETFs.  Here is that data.

• VDE = 8.76%
• VCR = 131.08%
• VFH = 1.45%
• VHT = 6.25%
• VIS = – 1.22%  The only losing sector were I to sell now.
• VAW = 2.66%
• VOX = 25.13%
• VPU = 10.36%

If I needed to set 3% TSLOs on Monday, five of the eight ETFs would turn a profit.

Carson Risk Ratios

Even when risk is taken into account, the Carson is performing very well.  The Jensen Performance Index is currently higher than at any time since last July.  If this continues for a few more months we will turn the slope of the Jensen from negative to positive.  That is the current goal for this portfolio.

New Carson Launched: 4 November 2022

Buying Guidelines For BPI Model Portfolios: 9 December 2022

Carson Portfolio Update: 18 November 2022