Smith Rocks – Central Oregon
Carson is the Sector BPI portfolio up for review this morning. In addition to updating the Carson, readers interested in knowing how to manage a Sector BPI Plus portfolio will find instructions in this blog post. Since no sectors are in the Buy or oversold zone and we have Trailing Stop Loss Orders (TSLOs) in place for all the overbought sector ETFs, few actions are required. More details are available in the second screenshot shown below.
Carson Security Recommendations
Using the LRPC investing model and the “default” look-back combination, equities such as VTI, SPY, VOO, and ESGV are a Buy. Are the percentages filled or do we need to add more shares? The question will be answered. We skip the sector ETFs or those with the dark blue background since none of these sectors are oversold. Remember, we use Bullish Percent Indicator data to determine Buy and Sell orders for the eleven (11) sectors. VOX is neither overbought or oversold so we will continue to hold on to this ETF.
Carson Manual Risk Adjustments
I adjusted the SD Multiplier to 1.17 so the Stop Loss percentage for VTI would lock in at 8.0%. Within the Kipling spreadsheet is a worksheet that precedes the worksheet shown below. In that prior worksheet I set the Maximum Trade Position Risk to 0.60% or one of the risk controls available to users of the Kipling SS. That setting translated to a Maximum Portfolio Risk of 3.00% on the worksheet shown below. 3.0% is on the low side, but I can live with it under these market conditions. The only required sell decision is to place a TSLO under VEA. The other decision, since cash is still available, is to set a number of limit orders to purchase shares of BIL. One limit order for 100 shares of BIL was struck while I was writing this blog. That purchase is not recognized in this post, but will show up when the Carson is reviewed in a few weeks.
Carson Performance Data
We are moving toward 19 months of data and the Carson holds a commanding lead over the SPY benchmark. See the colored arrows below.
Carson Risk Ratios
The first few weeks of August have not been kind to the Carson as the Jensen Alpha value dipped by several integers. Nevertheless, 8.72 is an extremely high value. While we prefer to see growth in each of the risk ratios, all the current values are quite strong.
When we enter 2024 the slope of the Jensen should be positive. That is one of the goals for this portfolio.
Buying Guidelines For BPI Model Portfolios: 9 December 2022
Tweaking Sector BPI Plus Model: 20 May 2023
Millikan Sector BPI Update: 20 July 2023
Tomorrow I plan to update the Millikan, another Sector BPI portfolio. If you have questions as to how to manage a Sector BPI portfolio, feel free to post your questions in the Comment section provided with each blog post.
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