Carson Sector BPI Portfolio Review: 29 February 2024

Lineup

Carson, the oldest Sector BPI portfolio, is up for review this morning.  As you go through this analysis pay attention to the latest Sector BPI version and don’t pass up the last two screenshots.  The next to last one lays out the performance of the Carson and the very last screenshot shows the Sector BPI performance of all 13 portfolios following this model.  Not all 13 are reviewed monthly as some owners prefer their data not be published.

The Sector BPI investing model is one of three I am now using with the 15 ITA portfolios.  The Copernicus and Schrodinger use different, but simple, investing styles.  If any of these approaches require additional explanations, just form your questions and ask in the Comment section provided with each blog post.

Based on the latest BPI data, no sector ETFs are recommended for purchase.  When this occurs we focus on investing available cash in VTI and VOO.  This is the latest iteration of the Sector BPI investing model.

Carson Investment Quiver and Holdings

Below is the investment quiver and current holdings for the Carson portfolio.  I have Trailing Stop Loss Orders (TSLOs) set to sell all shares of ESGV and VEA.  When those shares are sold I will purge those two ETFs from the investment quiver and concentrate non-sector recommendations into VTI and VOO.  Note that VOO will hold as high as 65% of the portfolio while VTI may rise to 35% of the portfolio.  It will be rare for these percentages to max out as sector ETFs will most likely be holding some percentage of the portfolio.  Such is now the case.

Carson Manual Risk Adjustment

TSLOs are in place to sell ESGV and VEA.  Limit orders are also in place to add more shares of VTI and VOO.

Carson Performance Data

Since 12/31/2021 the Carson has outperformed the SPY benchmark by a comfortable margin.  The advantage the portfolio has over the other five potential benchmarks is even greater.  Check out the difference in the percentages when the IRR for Period is calculated.  Over the stated period the Carson has outperformed the benchmark by a factor of three.

Carson Risk Ratios

During the month of February the Carson gained ground on a risk adjusted basis (Jensen Performance Index), but pulled back slightly when compared to past performance of the SPY benchmark (Information Ratio).  The goal is to keep both the Jensen and Information Ratios increasing from month to month.  This is an extremely high bar to meet and a goal that will frequently fail.

Carson Sector Portfolio Report

The following data table pertains only to the Carson portfolio.  The first sector ETFs were purchased in May of 2022.  Since that time the IRR for Period for the Carson is 56.2% while the SPY benchmark is a strong 24.8%.  During this period the S&P 500 rose 22.9%.

ITA Sector BPI Data

Now we look at all the ITA portfolios following the Sector BPI model.  By posting this data I avoid the criticism of posting only a selected portfolio that is doing very well.  Also, the following table provides me with a better understanding as to how well the Sector BPI model is working for portfolios that are reviewed at different times of the month.  This data smooths out or reduces the luck-of-review-day issues.

The asterisk by some of the percentages simply indicates the security was not part of the portfolio on 5/1/2022.

Questions and Comments are always welcome.

Tweaking Sector BPI Plus Investing Model: Part II

Thus far the Sector BPI investing model exceeds expectations.