Darwin 2026 Portfolio Review: 13 March 2026

10th Floor Roof-Top Pool at Vidanta Resort, Nuevo Vallarta, Mexico

US Equity markets continued their weakness, with investor concerns over political situations in the Middle East resulting in the SPX (S&P500 Index) closing ~ 1.5% lower than last week’s close. This leaves us near the lower boundary of the tentative downtrend channel that I drew a couple of weeks ago:

Compared to other major asset classes, US Equities came in at around the center of the pack with Commodities outperforming and Gold underperforming:

This is a little unexpected since Commodities and Gold are more often positively correlated.

Checking the recommendation from the Darwin Analysis sheet:

we see Buy or Hold recommendations for SPYM (US Equities), IAU (Gold), DJP (Commodities), VNQ (US Real Estate) and TLT (US Treasuries). The last four of these ETFs are currently held in the portfolio, but SPYM is not held. Checking on the momentum/acceleration graphs for SPYM we see that acceleration (green line) is still positive (>0 on the right-hand axis) and momentum (blue line), has also just turned positive and has movied above the Wilder Moving Average filter (brown line), thus qualifying for a momentum buy recommendation. However, these measurements/indicators suffer from a little (~1-week) lag and daily prices have not traded above the prior day’s high in the last week – hence my decision not to add this ETF to the portfolio in the last week. I continue to monitor this ETF.

Checking Portfolio performace we see the following picture:

with little movement over the past week compared with losses for the AOA benchmark. Gains in commodities (DJP) were essentially cancelled by losses in IAU (Gold) as these moved in opposite directions as noted above.

No adjustments were made in the last week and I continue to watch SPYM closely. I am also watching IAU for a possible Sell recommendation should Gold show further weakness:

Commodities are presently showing the most strength:

Remember that, although not an official part of this portfolio, I am also holding a Risk Reveversal Hedge against this portfolio (https://itawealth.com/portfolio-hedging/). Although I have only held the hedge for a couple of days, this hedge is presently showing ~$250 profit: