Einstein Portfolio Review: 4 December 2023

Structure on Laws Railroad Museum site.

Einstein is another Sector BPI portfolio I’m updating today.  Since no sectors are oversold there are no transitions anticipated.  Several limit orders in place to pick up shares of VOO and one order was struck while writing this blog.  That purchase does not show up in this analysis.

Einstein Security Holdings

Below are the current holdings for the Einstein.  Once more, the recommended percentages for the various sector ETFs (gray background) is based on a three-year volatility calculation.  The more volatile the sector the higher percentage to invest in that sector.  Healthcare is currently the most volatile at 12.3%.  The Einstein holds 13.6% of the portfolio in the Health sector.

TSLOs are in place for Financials, Technology, Utilities and Real Estate.

Einstein Risk Management Decisions

As mentioned above no sectors are oversold so we do nothing on the Buy side for the eleven sectors.  Four sectors are currently overbought and TSLOS are set for those four sector ETFs.

I have several limit orders in place to add VOO to the Einstein.  One of the orders was struck minutes ago.  Remember that if sector purchases do no use up all available cash we move on to the U.S. Equities ETFs.  VOO is currently the number one rank so we are attempting to pick up more shares of VOO.

Einstein Performance Data

The Einstein is lagging all benchmarks.  This data goes back to 12/31/2021 or nearly two years.  Part of the reason for poor performance is due to withdrawals for educational purposes by the owner of this portfolio.  The timing of the withdrawals was a negative.

Einstein Risk Ratios

As readers can see, the Einstein is one of the recent additions to the Sector BPI investing model.  Now we need to observer the direction of the growth over the next year.  While it is early in December, the early signals are not all that positive when we check in on the Jensen Alpha values.  We need to go through several buy/sell cycles before we have a clearer picture as to how this model works.

Now that multiple portfolios are using the Sector BPI model and there are different launch periods, we have the basis for a good test.  In addition the portfolios are reviewed at very different periods during the month adding to the randomness of this experiment.