Kepler Asset Allocation Portfolio Review: 11 September 2026

Grooming

Kepler is the asset allocation portfolio scheduled for a review this morning.  The current lineup of ETFs is only three months old so we have little data as to whether this new asset allocation mix will improve the historically poor performance of the Kepler.

As currently constructed the portfolio will throw off approximately 4.0% in dividends, and that is without the portfolio being in balance.

Kepler Asset Allocation Portfolio

Below are the current Exchange Traded Funds for the Kepler.  As dividends come in I plan to add shares to ETFs or asset classes that are below target, but generate large percentage dividends. VTIP and SGOV are examples.

Kepler Rebalancing Recommendations

One limit order is set to add three shares of USFR,  I also set a Trailing Stop Loss Order (TSLO) at 2.8% for SCHD.  This ETF is the largest dollar holding other than SCHO and the inflation protector, VTIP.

As mentioned in other blog posts, I am slowly moving assets that have equity exposure over to short-term treasuries such as SGOV and SCHO.  With oil prices continuing to run around $100 a barrel, fertilizer prices will remain high.  That in turn will keep grocery prices high and that means inflation will not abate.  The self-imposed tariff wars are not at all helpful in keeping prices down.

Kepler Performance Data

Since 12/31/2021 the Kepler is barely in the IRR positive zone.  This is one of the portfolios where the owner dipped into from time to time for educational funds and that has definitely cramped performance as funds were required at market points when the market was low.  This is not a retirement portfolio where savings are added each month to take advantage of dollar-cost-averaging.  One more year of education and the owner can then begin to build a retirement portfolio.

Kepler Risk Ratios

When the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) is disappointing we look for small positive signals.  One positive sign is the modest positive slope of the Jensen Alpha.  The Information Ratio is a little better than it was late last spring.  These changes are slight and almost classify as noise.

The Jensen has not varied much over this past year.  The current value is above where it was last September.

Questions and Comments are always welcome.  Drop them in the Comment section available below.