Kepler Portfolio — October 20, 2026: Recommended Asset Allocation

I found ITA Wealth Management’s latest listed Kepler review, dated October 8, 2026, along with the September 11 review. I could not verify a separate October 20 holdings sheet, so I will distinguish the published information from my recommended allocation rather than present older holdings as if they were current.

ITA Wealth Management

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My objective is to improve Kepler’s ability to withstand a major stock-market correction, maintain reasonable income, and preserve purchasing power during possible financial repression. I would favor low-cost Vanguard ETFs where practical, while retaining a few specialized holdings where they provide a distinct defensive benefit.

1. What the latest Kepler information tells us

The October 8 Kepler page is accessible, but its holdings details are restricted to registered readers with additional access. The latest detailed holdings figures I could verify remain those from September 11. That review describes Kepler as a recently revised asset-allocation portfolio, with approximately 4% dividend income and a substantial short-term Treasury position.

ITA Wealth Management

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The September figures showed:

• SCHO (short-term Treasury bonds) at 46.7% of actual holdings, versus a 5% target.

• VTIP (short-term inflation-protected Treasuries) at 9.6%, close to its 10% target.

• Several equity and alternative investments significantly below their targets.

• A stated intention to add to underweight holdings gradually rather than immediately rebalance everything.

  

  ITA Wealth Management

My assessment: Kepler’s defensive Treasury allocation is a reasonable starting point for a correction-conscious investor. However, the allocation should be assessed against a written long-term target, not simply the expectation that a correction will occur soon. Holding too much in short-term Treasuries for too long can create substantial opportunity cost and expose the investor to reinvestment risk if interest rates fall.

2. My recommended Kepler allocation

For an investor seeking moderate income, capital preservation, protection against a market correction, and some defense against financial repression, I would use the following 11-ETF model as a starting point.

Ticker note: SGOV, USFR, IAU, DBC and JEPI are not Vanguard funds. Vanguard alternatives are used where appropriate. The weights are my proposed targets, not ITA’s published October 20 holdings.

Why I prefer this allocation

45% in Treasury and inflation-oriented holdings. SGOV, VGSH, VTIP and USFR provide a defensive foundation. They have different interest-rate characteristics, although all are exposed to some combination of inflation, interest-rate and reinvestment risk.

40% in broad-market and dividend-growth equities. VTI, VXUS and VIG offer U.S. and international diversification. These holdings retain meaningful growth potential, although all can lose value in a major correction.

4% in real estate. VNQ adds a different source of income and exposure to property-owning businesses, but REITs can be sensitive to rising rates and falling property values.

8% in gold and commodities. IAU and DBC provide measured exposure to assets that can help during certain inflationary or supply-shock periods. Neither is a guaranteed hedge against falling stocks.

3% in option-based income. JEPI provides a limited income-oriented equity allocation. Its distributions can vary, and it can lose value in a market decline.

3. How I would improve the current Kepler portfolio

1. Set a strategic target and stop relying solely on limit orders. Keep a defined defensive reserve, then use scheduled rebalancing to maintain the target mix. Deep limit orders may never execute if the market keeps rising.

2. Reduce overlapping investments. I would choose one gold ETF rather than holding both SGOL and IAU, and avoid excessive duplication among U.S. dividend funds and broad-market ETFs.

3. Do not eliminate equities while waiting for a correction. The proposed 40% core equity allocation provides continued market participation. The appropriate amount depends on how much loss the investor can tolerate.

4. Manage withdrawals separately from investment performance. Keep enough liquid Treasury holdings for foreseeable spending needs so that equity sales during a downturn are less likely to be necessary.

5. Measure results against a benchmark. Compare Kepler with a suitable balanced benchmark such as AOR and a broad stock benchmark such as VTI. Evaluate maximum drawdown, recovery time, Sortino Ratio, Jensen Alpha and inflation-adjusted returns—not yield alone.

4. What would I expect in a market correction?

The proposed allocation is designed to reduce the portfolio’s sensitivity to an equity sell-off, not eliminate losses.

I would not promise a particular drawdown percentage without testing the actual holdings and their historical returns. Correlations can change sharply during crises, and a portfolio that protects against an ordinary correction may behave differently during a combined inflation and equity shock.

5. My final recommendation

I would use the 11-ETF mix above as a candidate target allocation, then compare it against Kepler’s existing target and actual holdings before making trades. It offers a balance of Treasury defense, inflation protection, international diversification, income and continued equity participation.

The most important next step is to verify the October 20 portfolio sheet. If you upload the Kepler holdings/allocation screenshot from ITA Wealth Management—or provide its target and actual percentage columns—I can produce a precise line-by-line comparison showing which ETFs to increase, reduce, eliminate or retain, and by how many percentage points.