Bethe Portfolio Review: 2 October 2025

Walk With Dave*

As with the Einstein portfolio the Bethe is also in the rebuilding phase.  Perhaps all portfolios are rebuilding provided new cash is added on a regular basis.  Such is the case with the Bethe.

Bethe Asset Allocation Holdings

Below is the current Asset Allocation for the Bethe.  There are a few minor changes in the AA since the last review.  I continue to hold a large percentage of the portfolio in short-term treasuries as I conclude this market is overbought.  I don’t expect much to change until the first or second quarters of 2026.  Historically the fourth quarter is a strong quarter.

Bethe Rebalancing Recommendations

Using the following worksheet from the Kipling spreadsheet I am slowly adding a few shares to the various equity ETFs.  None of the current holdings show a Sell recommendation.

Bethe Performance Data

Since 12/31/2021 the Bethe has fallen behind the AOR benchmark.  The gap is one that can be closed, particularly if there is a market correction of 10% or more.  While it is not easy to be patient, I am not rushing to purchase equity ETFs at these high prices.  I am setting limit orders below the current price in hopes of picking up shares at lower prices.

Bethe Risk Ratios

Pay most attention to the September data as it is much too early in October to see significant changes.  Other than the Information Ratio each of the risk ratios improved from August to September.

If you look back to the Jensen Alpha values of last fall one sees much higher numbers.  This was before money was withdrawn by the owner of this portfolio.  Those withdrawals occurred during a strong market and did significant damage to the Bethe performance.

• Yesterday we had a community event here at Hope Village.  There was a community walk with Dave, a friend who lost both legs to diabetes.  Several walkers with only one original leg showed up for the community walk.  I served as the “official” photographer.