Darwin 2026 Portfolio Review: 8 May 2026

Wood Sculpture, Botanic Gardens, Singapore

Another bullish week in the US Equity markets with the SPX (S&P 500 Index) again making new all-time highs:

Prices closed at ~7400 (50% Fibonacci extension from the March Pivot low) that I had identified last week as the next potential area of resistance – we will see next week whether this level does present resistance or whether investors ignore it and we continue to grind higher. The next significant Fibonacci extension number would be the 61.8% extension at ~7650. A (maybe) more probable scenario would be a 38.2% pullback from here to the 7000 prior resistance level to test as a new support level.

Relative to other major asset classes, despite the 2.35% close higher than last week’s close, US Equities only came out in the middle of the pack with International Equities and Gold outperforming. Gains in the Emerging Markets waere close to 6% on the week:

Only commodities lost out with a 1.6% loss.

Checking the Darwin analysis sheet we see the following recommendations:

I have again changed the algorithm slightly in order to (hopefully) take out some of my discretionary decisions – but only to the extent that some of these discretionary decisions are now better defined – there should be no obvious difference in screenshots, just more “rules” under the hood. No new indicators or calculations have been added to the model.

At present we are seeing Momentum Buy Signals for US Equities (SPYM), International Markets (SCHF and EEM) and DJP (Commodities). All other ETFs are showing Sell recommendations of various strengths with the darker red background the strongest signal. A paler red background is where we might not wish to sell if we were holding, since shorter-term indicators (MACD and RSI) are still positive.

DJP is presently showing a weak Momentum Buy signal with a very pale green background – so, since this is one of the ETFs presently held in the portfolio let’s take a look at the momentum/acceleration graphs:

where both momentum (blue line) and acceleration (green line) are in positive territory (thus qualifying for a momentum buy recommendation) but momentum is lying below it’s 14-period Wilder Moving Average (brown line) and MACD is in negative territory – hence the warning of short-term weakness and the possibility of needing to sell should this weakness continue (with acceleration maybe turning negative or RSI falling below 50). The algorithm is changed to reflect this and to show the recommendation on a pale green background.

VNQ is also presently showing a strong Sell recommendation (dark red background) so let’s take a look at it’s momentum/acceleration graphs:

Here we see both acceleration and (relative) momentum in negative territory (with momentum crossing below the zero line on Friday). Momentum is also trading below it’s Wilder Moving average and MACD also turning negative. I seriously considered selling VNQ out of the portfolio on Friday except that it was trading higher than it’s prior day close – so, it earned a reprive until at least Monday – but I fully expect to be selling holdings in VNQ out of the portfolio early next week.

SPYM and EEM are currently held in the portfolio and Buy recommendations are strong so there’s no need to worry too much about them at the moment but, SCHF is flashing a weak Momentum Buy recommendation – so let’s take a look at the graphs here:

where we see that momentum just turned into positive territory on Friday, but is trading below it’s Wilder Moving Average, and acceleration, while on an upward trajectory, is still negative. In the short-term MACD and RSI are both sending positive signals. Whilst this is a nice “heads-up” signal I will wait for a little more confirmation with either momentum crossing above it’s MA or acceleration crossing into positive territory. Categorizing this setup/scenario is difficult because it is also close to a Sell recommendation (should momentum turn around and drop back below the zero line). A small move down at the beginning of the week could easily trigger this – but I will leave the categorization as-is for now but may tighten the Buy recommendation to require a little more confirmation in the future.

this week’s “discretionary” decisions came down to whether I should sell DJP or Buy SCHF. I chose not to do either so there were no adjustments to the portfolio this week with performance looking like this:

…still OK, but being held back a little this week with the weakness in Commodities.