Palm Tree Trunk
Bethe is a simple equity oriented portfolio. The asset allocation is currently skewed toward “cash” in the form of short-term treasuries (SHV) as the probability of a major market correction over the next 12 to 18 months is extremely high.
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Bethe Security Holdings
The Bethe currently holds only four equity ETFs and Trailing Stop Loss Orders (TSLOs) are in place to sell all shares. The TSLOs range from 3% to 5%. As shares are sold I am adding to the SHV position so long as the Kipling spreadsheet does not recommend any purchases. See the next screenshot. Currently there are zero buying recommendations.
Bethe Rebalancing Recommendations
The manual risk adjustment worksheet does not recommend any purchases other than SHV at this time. This morning I used dividends to purchase two (2) more shares of SHV. I’ll continue this process until I see any Buy recommendations in the 8th column from the right.
Bethe Performance Data
With such a high percentage invested in treasuries I don’t expect the Bethe to keep pace with the AOR benchmark so long as the market remains this high. Any kind of “normal” correction will reverse these positions and that is what I am counting on sometime over the next 1.5 years.
Bethe Risk Ratios
The two critical risk ratios (Jensen and Information) are well below where they were a year ago. If we go back to the March-April period we see some improvement.
The Information Ratio indicates the Bethe has consistently fallen behind the AOR benchmark.
This video does not paint a rosy picture for the U.S. Economy. This is not just the opinion of one individual. Buffett and the new Berkshire managers are operating BRK with these warnings in mind. One hedge fund manager closed his fund and is shorting the AI market.
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