Sculptures located at the northern most point in Europe – at the top of Norway.
Carson is the oldest Sector BPI portfolio and thus far the most profitable. As with the three other Sector BPI portfolios, I’ve added additional securities to patch the logic gap found in the original sector hypothesis. Those additions are: 1) Dual Momentum options and 2) Income CEF options. Follow along with the analysis of the Carson.
Carson Investment Quiver
Below is the investment quiver for the Carson. Before moving further, if you are a user of the Kipling SS, let me know if your Excel software is downloading the description of the ETFs. As you see from the following screenshot, the description and data to the right is missing. It would help me to know if it is my Excel as Office 365 was updated recently and I think something was changed in Excel.
As you may recall from the Gauss review yesterday, three sectors are overbought and they are: Staples (VDC), Health (VHT), and Utilities (VPU). The Carson does not hold shares of VDC so no action there. Since the Carson does hold shares of VHT and VPU, I have 3.0% TSLOs in place for those two sector ETFs.
If either VHT or VPU were to be sold, I would use the available cash to purchase shares of VEA – up to 25% of the total portfolio.
Carson Security Recommendations
None of the eleven sectors are in the Buy or oversold zone so no changes are recommended for ETFs VCR down through VNQ. Furthermore, there is only $50 in cash so no more purchases are forthcoming. Had cash been available, I would have purchased shares of VEA.
Carson Performance Data
Over the past 15.5 months the Carson opened up a significant lead on the S&P 500 (SPY). In fact the margin is huge. None of the other potential benchmarks come close to the 8.5% annualized IRR we see for the Carson. Since 12/31/2021 the Carson has increased 11.2% in value.
Carson Risk Ratios
The most recent uptick in the Jensen is still insufficient to move the Jensen slope into positive territory. If we are able to show growth over the next two months the slope will turn positive.
The Information Ratio hit an all time high with a 4.0 value. Thus far the Carson is turning in excellent results based on return and risk.
Buying Guidelines For BPI Model Portfolios: 9 December 2022
New Carson Launched: 4 November 2022
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Help me out and let me know if it is my Excel that is not downloading ETF descriptions or if it has something to to with Yahoo and/or Tiing. Neither site is bringing in the data so I assume the problem is local with my Excel.
Lowell
Lowell
One of my spreadsheets updated just fine. However, it did lock up after downloading data. Took some clicking and closing open SS. Then closed and open Excel. Opened Kipling ss and updated with no problem. Windows has updated recently with more stuff that I don’t need. I have windows 10 but don’t have the 365.
Bob
Bob,
I just opened up Excel and the descriptions came through. Must have been Yahoo gremlins at work this morning.
Thanks for your reply.
Lowell
Mine update fine using Tingo Raw data.
Steven,
Just got mine to work. Thank you for responding.
Lowell
I notice that for the BPI Plus portfolios you inter-mix BHS, LRPC, default look-back and long look-back parameters. I there a reason for this, or are you just experimenting with the options?
Steve
Steve,
Good eye.
The look-back and BHS vs. LRPC settings will not impact the Sector BPI decisions as those are made independent of the Kipling SS. Nor will it impact the CEF income decisions.
The only place these different settings will have an effect is with the four Dual Momentum securities (VTI, VEA, VWO, and BND) and then only if there is excess cash after the sectors have been filled.
I’m currently experimenting, but I’m leaning more and more toward a one-year look-back and the LRPC model.
Lowell
After the market closed I updated the BPI spreadsheet and found Telecom (VOX) is oversold. If a Sector BPI portfolio has cash available, this is no problem as I will purchase shares of VOX after the market opens tomorrow.
There are several Sector BPI portfolios that do not have available cash. What to do? In most cases, these “cash starved” portfolios are holding Utilities (VPU). Instead of waiting for the 3% TSLO to be struck, I plan to sell all shares of VPU and invest that cash in VOX. In other words, trade overbought shares (VPU) for oversold shares (VOX).
Lowell