Sellwood Starbucks before opening.
Investors interested in or using the Sector BPI model will find this analysis of the Carson useful. When I get to the second screenshot you will see no purchase recommendations are called for as no sectors are in the oversold zone and VTI and VOO are fully populated. This does not mean we have zero decisions to make if capital preservation is a priority.
Carson Security Holdings
With over $20,000 in cash one would think a few purchase orders are recommended. Not so at this point although I do have limit orders set to pick up more shares of VTI and VOO should the market drop – as I assume it will sometime this summer. I generally set limit orders at 5% to 10% below the current price as these are “correction” ballpark percentages.
Carson Manual Risk Adjustments
With the Carson I am using the Buy-Hold-Sell (BHS) investing model that is programmed into the Kipling spreadsheet. In addition, I am using the default look-back periods. With these variables in place we see where VTI and VOO are generating Sell recommendations. With the Sector BPI investing model I override the Sell orders, but pay attention to any Buy orders should they show up. In other words, I am not selling or rushing out to add more shares.
Utilities and Technology were the two most recent sectors recommended for purchase. VPU and VGT are fully populated so we will do nothing at this point when it comes to adding more shares to any of the sector ETFs.
To preserve capital I have TSLOs set to sell shares of VTI and VOO. If these U.S. Equities drop by 8% points one or more sectors will most likely drop into the oversold zone and we will need cash to fill those recommendations.
Carson Performance Data
Since 12/31/2021 the Carson is outstripping the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by a wide margin. The lead is even greater when compared with other potential benchmarks. The Sector BPI investing model is working very well with the Carson.
Carson Risk Ratios
Over the past year it is rare to spot any negative values among the five risk ratios. The primary concern I have is the negative slope for the Jensen Performance Index. It appears as if the SPY benchmark is eating away at the IRR performance of the Carson. When the Jensen Alpha is this high it is difficult to grow the Jensen.
Carson Sector Portfolio Report
In the following table we have two years of data for the Carson. The sector ETFs plus VTI and VOO returned 63.5% while the SPY pulled down a 25.1% return. Both are outstanding percentages.
The right-hand column provides annualized IRR values, which may be of more importance to readers of this blog.
Tweaking Sector BPI Plus Model: 20 May 2023
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