Darwin 2026 Portfolio Review: 10 July 2026

Milford Sound, New Zealand

US Equity markets rose ~1.4% this week from last week’s close but remain in a consolidation range between ~7300 and 7600 in the SPX (S&P 500 Index) with ~7500 seeming to be a significant support/resistance level within this range:

We remain in a bullish uptrend channel but struggling a little towards the bottom of the range. It remains to be seen whether there is enough enthusiasm in the market to push us above the 7600 level and into the upper  half of the channel or whether we may drop out of the channel with a close below ~7300 (and the 50 EMA).

Relative to other major asset classes:

US Equities held up fairly well although outpaced a little by Commodities (oil) – that were stimulated by fears of continued problems in the middle east (shipping through the Strait of Hormuz) – and Emerging Market Equities. Bonds (US Treasuries) were the weakest sector over the past week.

A check of the analysis sheet for the Darwin Portfolio looks like this:

with weak Buy signals for VNQ (US Real Estate) and SPYM (US Equities) but, since these are weak signals and I am already holding a position in VNQ I did not make any adjustments to the portfolio this week and performance looks like this:

essentially mirroring the consolidation mentioned above. However, this means that cash is available should there be evidence of a breakout to the upside. The Trade sheet looks like this:

where it can be seen that we picked up dividends and interest from TLT,  BIL and Cash.

Checking on the momentum/acceleration graphs:

VNQ is not showing strength with acceleration dropping below zero and momentum barely ahead of its Wilder Moving Average. Now that Dividends have been paid I will be selling this ETF should momentum fall below the moving average.

SPYM (a weak momentum Buy recommendation) looks like this:

so I am waiting to see whether momentum can rise above its moving average now that acceleration has turned positive.

The Portfolio is presently in a wait-and-see mode before adjustments are made.