Darwin 2026 Portfolio Review: 22 May 2026

Harbor, Auckland, New Zealand

It was a week of consolidation in the US equity markets with the SPX (S&P 500 Index) hovering in the 7400-7500 resistance range and closing the week ~ 0.9% above last week’s close:

From here, at the lower boundary of the current bullish uptrend channel, we will wait to see whether the 7500 resistance level will hold or whether we see a breakout, with more new all-time highs, and a move towards the ~7650 level, which may well provide the next level of resistance. Alternatively we could see a pullback to test the prior resistance level at ~7150 that might then provide support. This would require a drop out of the current channel, as drawn, but, since this is a relatively narrow channel, this might just require re-defining the bullish channel to a more “normal” width.

Relative to other major asset classes:

US equities closed ~0.9% higher than last week’s close but were outperformed by international equities (EEM and SCHF) and US Real Estate (VNQ). Commodities were the biggest losers on the week.

Checking the recommendation sheet for the Darwin Portfolio we see the following picture:

with Momentum Buy recommendations for SPYM (US Equities) and SCHF (Developed Market Equities) and a Sell recommendation for EEM (Emerging Market Equities).

Let’s take a look at the momentum/acceleration graphs for EEM since this ETF is currently held in the portfolio and may need to be sold out:

As we can see from the above screenshot, acceleration (green line) has just turned negative and momentum (blue line), while still positive, has also dropped below it’s 14-period Wilder moving average. This generates the sell signal but, before making the decision to sell, we check the shorter term indicators. Here, we get mixed signals, with a negative MACD signal and a positive (>50) RCI signal. This leaves just the daily change in price to confirm the decision. Since this was positive on Friday (at least at the time I checked it) I did not sell out of the position but, if the charts remain the same and price moves down next week, I will be selling to lock in ~$1700 profit. This would leave me with 60% in Cash (BIL) that is a long way from my target of trying to stay ~100% invested – but, if the market should turn around and we see a pullback, this would be good – so I am not going to add to positions at this point since the Buy recommendations are not that strong.

Performance of the portfolio, to date, looks like this:

that doesn’t look too bad considering the current significant holdings in Cash (40%).

Bottom line – no adjustments in the past week but likely sale of shares in EEM next week on any signs of weakness.