Dirac 2026 Portfolio Review: 31 July 2026

Penny Lane (of Beatles fame), Liverpool, England – together with Paul McCartney’s Autograph – and other graffitti

With the broad SPX US Equity Index still in a 3-month consolidation range between 7300 and 7600 I am reluctant to trade too much since sideways consolidations are not the best environment for momentum trading. However, the current analysis of sectors within this broader market looks like this:

with Buy recommendations on six of the ten sectors within the portfolio “quiver”.

In the past week I closed down positions in XLC (Communications) and XLY (Consumer Discretionary) and replaced them with positions in XLP (Consumer Staples) and XLU (Utilities):

XLC and XLY were closed for losses and the new positions aren’t doing much better. This whipsaw behaviour is common when managing momentum systems in a sideways consolidating market – fortunately I chose to trade only half “lots” of these ETFs until I see more evidence of breakouts from the current ranges.

The momentum/acceleration chart for XLP looks like this:

that still doesn’t look particularly strong but is supported by positive shorter term MACD and RSI indicators.

XLU looks similar:

although the MACD and RSI indicators are not supportive. I may switch my current position in XLU for a position in XLI:

should the MACD and RSI signals change to support this. The momentum/acceleration signals are recent so we may be able to get in early on a trend should one develop.

Current relative performance of the sectors looks like this:

with the sectors that I sold 2 weeks ago now heading the list and Utilities (that I bought) at the bottom of the list. This is typical short-term whipsaw behaviour that is difficult to avoid.

In terms of portfolio performance the equity curve looks like this:

reflecting stagnation over the past month – but no worse than the benchmark SPY fund – in fact, significantly better over the past 3-month period. The portfolio is showing a 28% Internal Rate of Return (IRR) Year-To-Date with a comfortable 14% volatility.