Rutherford-Darwin Portfolio Review: 11 July 2025

Tour Car – Madeira (Portugal)

After the Independence Day Holiday and the break through the significant 6100 resistance level in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) we waited to see where the markets would go next – but, it was a quiet week, with consolidation around 6250 and a close just slightly lower than last week’s close:

Volume was below average, volatility dropped and we did not pullback for a retest of the 6100 level. The MACD and RSI Indicators are still both in bullish agreement.

Relative to other major asset classes, US equities came in neutral with Crypto and Oil leading the way and Bonds taking the biggest loss in a wide range of relative performance:

Darwin Core Portfolio:

There were no major adjustments to the Darwin Portfolio other than to record the deposit of dividends from BIL (short-term Treasury T-Bills):

Due to holdings in IBIT (Crypto) and USO (Oil) we saw a slight increase in the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) through the week.

Checking the Rankings and recommendations from the Kipling workbook:

we see a picture pretty much the same as last week with only SPLG (US Large-Cap Equities) showing as a Buy recommendation (relative to the benchmark SPY) with ETA, EEM (International Equities), VNQ (Real Estate) USO and IBIT remaining on Hold. Again, IAU (Gold) is showing as a recommended Sell, but, as we saw last week, the chart is not suggesting weakness – just consolidation – so I will not make any adjustments here.

In terms of allocations, only USO is significantly out-of-line, but I will wait for Options expiration next week before deciding what actions I might take:

Rutherford Risk Management:

Let’s take a look at the risk management/hedging situation:

As a result of Friday’s strength in Crypto (IBIT) I bought back the Call Option that I had sold, that was then In-The-Money, and limiting potential profits:

IBIT broke out strongly on high volume so I’ll get out of the way and wait to see where Crypto goes from here.

At the present time I have $340 “in-the-bank” awaiting time decay (at ~$50+ per day) over the next week when the Options expire.

So, not a lot of action this past week with the total portfolio performance looking like this:

with volatility increasing slightly to 4.2% over the 2 month period.