Howth, Ireland
It was a “relatively” quiet week in the US equity markets ahead of the holiday weekend with the SPX (S&P 500 Index) closing down ~1.5% from last Friday’s close:
After a weak attempt to test resistance at 5520 on Monday markets lost ground for the rest of the week closing at around the center of the short-term bearish downtrend channel that started in February. Despite having pulled back slightly, volatility, as measured by the 14-day Average True Range (ATR), remains elevated at ~3x normal levels.
On the weekly chart from 2020 (following the Covid Crash) we can see that, after pulling back to the 50% retracement of the intermediate term Sep 2022- Feb 2025 bullish channel, prices are still below the lower boundary of that channel but within the boundaries of the longer term Mar 2020 – Feb 2025 bullish channel:
Relative to other major asset classes:
US Equities did not fare well and finished as the weakest asset class being tracked. In the above screenshot, US Equities (as represented by SPY) are showing a positive return – but this includes the Friday performance from the previous week due to the shortened 4-day trading week. Cryptocurrencies and Oil led the field in terms of performance over this 5-day period.
In the Darwin portion of the portfolio we saw a small ~1.5% recovery:
with the Rutherford Options portion of the portfolio treading a little water and remaining flat
Adjustments to this portion of the portfolio included rolling the short leg of the VNQ “Diagonal” position out another week to the 25 April expiration to bring in more premium from the Option sold and adding a bearish “Vertical” spread position in USO (Oil). The Bullish position in SLV (Silver) remains unchanged and those are the only 3 position presently held.
With all the pieces of the portfolio put together, performance looks like this:
and holding steady (green line).
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