Carson Portfolio Checkup: 12 November 2022

Canyon Reefs National Park

Based on Bullish Percent Indicator data published earlier, a few changes are required for this new and unique portfolio titled Carson.  In case you missed it, I merged the dollars from the Carson HA, Carson BHS, into what was the Carson LRPC and renamed it Carson after Rachel Carson.  This new Carson is now managed using a unique model that, to my knowledge, has not been used elsewhere.

The basic philosophy is a buy low sell high model.  Each week I update the Bullish Percent Indicators for major indexes and sectors of the market.  When a sector ETF moves into the over-sold zone, purchase the ETF and hold it until it moves into the over-bought zone.  When this happens, as it did this week, set appropriate Trailing Stop Loss Orders (TSLOs).  Follow the Carson updates to see how this works.

Carson Investment Quiver

If you look back at the BPI data published earlier this morning you observed that VCR, VFH, VHT, VIS, VAW, and VGT all moved above the 70% bullish line or what is called the over-bought zone.  If any of these ETFs are in the Carson, we set TSLOs.

Pay no attention to the Buy signals in the worksheet below as the Carson is managed differently.  Should any of the ETFs be in the over-sold zone, I will use the Rank (5th column from the right) as a guide to which sector to fill first.

VGT is in the over-bought zone so I set a 3% TSLO to sell 10 shares.

I plan one more change not shown in the following worksheet.  Since the sector ETFs will spend most of their life between the 30% and 70% bullish lines, I want one more resting place for cash.  I plan to add SHY to the SHV and SCHP tickers so these three can be considered as alternatives for Cash.  When money is not investing in sector ETFs it will be investing in either SHV, SHY, SCHP or Cash.

I have no back-testing data so I’m unsure whether or not this investing model will work.  The logic seems sound, but that does not mean it will be successful based on the general theory.  Watch this space.

Carson Portfolio: Creating A New Investing Model

New Carson Launched: 4 November 2022