Painting of Street Musician
Rather than wait until Monday, this review of the Carson is a followup to the BPI data published earlier this morning. As mentioned in that BPI post, both Energy and Real Estate moved out of the Buy zone while Utilities dropped into the Buy zone.
The following post lays out how I intend to work with the Carson after the market opens on Monday.
Carson Security Recommendations
The majority of the Carson is invested in sector ETFs. Ten shares are held in VEA and those share will be sold to raise cash to purchase the recommended shares of Utilities (VPU). In addition, I plan to sell the 120 shares of KIO, a Closed-End-Fund.
Carson Manual Risk Adjustments
I adjusted the SD Multiplier so the Stop Loss percentage for VOO is 8.0%. That was the first adjustment with this worksheet. I also tweaked the Maximum Trace Position Risk fo the Maximum Portfolio Risk is a high 16.1%. This adjustment is set all available cash is invested.
I made a mistake as no shares of VNQ will be sold. I will hold on to the 60 shares. All shares of VEA and KIO will be sold and the cash will be used to purchase as many shares of VPU as possible. I don’t think there is sufficient cash to bring VPU up to the recommended 15.8%.
Carson Performance Data
Over the past 17 months the Carson continues to hold a commanding lead over the S&P 500 (SPY) as well as all other potential benchmarks. It is still too early to chalk this up to good luck or the strength of the Sector BPI model. We need to rotate through several Buy/Sell cycles before drawing any conclusions.
Carson Risk Ratios
The following data table provides additional information regarding the Sector BPI model. The few positive days in June elevated the Jensen Alpha value over the May value. However, the 11.6 value falls short of the very high April number (16.3). A few more good days and the slope of the Jensen should turn positive. That is one of the goals for the Carson.
When comparing the current values with the ratios from last June, it has been a positive period for the Carson. However, we’ve only been using the Sector BPI model for six months so patience is required.
Buying Guidelines For BPI Model Portfolios: 9 December 2022
Tweaking Sector BPI Plus Model: 20 May 2023
Carson Portfolio Update: 18 November 2022
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Very encouraging, and the start of the go away in May season. The debt ceiling resolution clearly made a difference. Thanks.
Lee,
Yes, we are off to a good June start. There is a high probability this will be a strong summer. However, I’m not one to predict which way the market will move and when.
My philosophy is to stay disciplined.
Lowell