Basic portfolio construction requires that long-term goals include diversification, a risk reduction model, and equity orientation. Here is how I outline the thinking process when putting together a portfolio of securities. Think diversification through asset allocation. Each asset class included in the Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) plan should hold a target percentage that makes it […]
Charles Ellis: Loser’s Game of Stock Picking
Let’s revisit Charles D. Ellis’ 1995 paper, “The Loser’s Game,” where he describes his Break-Even Return (BER) equation. Here is a review of this equation. BER = [(Turnover percentage x Transaction Cost) + Management Fee + Target Return]/Market Return It is quite easy to set up this equation in an Excel spreadsheet and play around […]
What the Experts Say About Index Investing
Perusing the Bogleheads web site, I found this long list of quotes from well known investment writers and managers. Here is what they have to say about index investing. These bits of wisdom further explain why I favor tilting investments toward non-managed index vehicles. Further, I favor ETFs for their additional tax efficiency. American Association […]
Risk Parity: A Brief Explanation of How Risky a 60/40 Portfolio Really Is
This is a follow-up to the HedgeHunter Risk Parity (RP) post. This blog post will give readers an overview of how RP is calculated. This not for the mathematically squeamish, but the concept is not difficult if one can get past one step in the logic. I agree with HedgeHunter as to flaws in this […]
Regression Analysis and The Schwert Effect
Regression Analysis is the investment communities effort to apply the scientific method to portfolio analysis. Let’s take a little time to explain what is meant by Regression Analysis. As you might remember from your math and science classes, data is plotted on an Y – X axis. For example, in physics it is common […]
Why I Use Index ETFs
Why I use Index Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). Let me count the ways. Simplicity: It saves the work of stock analysis. Increases probability of success: A literature search of index investing vs. active stock picking will have the honest researcher coming down on the side of index instruments. The literature is replete with this information […]
Fama-French 5-Factor Asset Pricing Model
Motivated by a question related to the Morningstar style box, what factors motivate the ITA investment philosophy. Is the style box or SAA model valid even when the securities used to populate the various boxes are highly correlated? The SAA model came on hard times during the Great Recession when seemingly low correlated investments all […]
Gordon Equation Revisited: A Time To Be Cautious
Back on December 16, 2009 I wrote a blog and then revised it in 2010. (Excuse the different size fonts as that comes from a copy and paste.) Those original writings are how history. This is the latest update of the Gordon Equation. I first learned of this equation while reading one of William Bernstein’s […]
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