Darwin 2026 Portfolio Review: 18 June 2026

Fishman’s Bastion, Budapest

US Equity markets jumped higher on Monday as investors reacted positively to news that the conflicts in the Middle East may soon be resolved. However, they pulled back modestly later in the week, managing to stay within the bullish uptrend channel, whilst closing ~1.5% higher than last week’s close:

We are now sitting at ~7500 in the SPX (S&P 500 Index) right in the middle of the 7400-7600 consolidation range in which we have trading for the past ~6 weeks.

Relative to other major asset classes, US Equities have performed modestly well, but still lag the performance of International Equities that have outperformed 2-3x over the past 6 months:

Adjustments to the Darwin portfolio in the past week look like this:

with Developed Market Equities (SCHF) and US Real Estate (VNQ) being added to the portfolio.

The analysis sheet of the momentum/acceleration model being used to manage the portfolio to this point looks like this:

with Momentum Buy recommendations for SCHF and EEM (Emerging Market Equities) and Mean Reversal Buy recommendation for TLT.

Until we see where the new Fed chairman is going I have chosen not to open a position in TLT (US Treasuries) at this point but have elected to open a position in VNQ based on the new analysis sheet that I am working on that looks like this:

Let’s take a look at the momentum/acceleration graphs for evidence supporting these decisions.

First, EEM, that was already held in the portfolio:

Momentum (blue line) has just crossed above it’s Wilder 14-period Moving Average (brown line) and acceleration (green line) looks likely to move into positive territory on Monday as it is in a strong upward trajectory near the zero line.

SCHF, that has just been added to the portfolio, is showing a similar picture but with relative momentum (left hand axis) at a lower level:

The picture for VNQ looks like this:

with similar crosses but with momentum in negative territory consistent with an expection of a reversion to the mean – although the downward trajectories of momentum and acceleration will need to be watched to confirm that this may only be a normal, modest, pullback before the uptrend continues.

TLT, that I have chosen not to add to the portfolio looks like this:

and, again, there is no real reason why this could not be added, other than my discretionary decision to wait to see investor’s reactions to the new Fed Chairman.

Performance of the portfolio, to date, looks like this:

that is acceptable apart from the fact that I am not meeting my 100% fund allocation goal – being only 70% invested despite the addition of SCHF and VNQ to the portfolio in the past week.