Darwin 2026 Portfolio Review: 26 June 2026

Organ, St.Peter’s Cathedral, Regensberg, Austria

After last week’s brief period of euphoria, with investor’s thinking that the problems in the Middle East might be over, this week saw a return to reality with a ~2.4% drop in the SPX (S&P 500 Index) and a continuation of the sideways consolidation that has been building over the past two months:

We are now sitting on the 50 Period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at ~ 7350 and may be dropping out of the bullish uptrend channel – although this cannot be confirmed until we drop below the previous pivot low at ~7250 and head towards the 100-period EMA. We might, just as easily, see a bounce from here and a continuation of the uptrend or, at least a retest of prior resistance levels.

Other Equity markets reacted similarly with Emerging Markets being hardest hit with a ~5% loss. US Real Estate and Treasuries (VNQ and TLT) were the asset classes showing most strength,

These rotations  caused me to make 2 adjustments to the Darwin Portfolio this week (red box):

where I sold my position in EEM (Emerging Market Equities) – after picking up the dividend – and replaced it with a position in TLT (US Treasuries). My order to buy shares in TLT was only partially filled (180 out ot 280 ordered) so I will continue to watch this into next week.

The current analysis sheet for the Darwin Portfolio looks like this:

… so I am in reasonable shape apart from allocation levels that are srill sitting below my target 100% fully invested level. However, in this uncertain climate, I am reluctant to increase my allocation level above 25% in any single asset class so I will tread gently.

If we look at the momentum/acceleration charts to see what made me decide to make the adjustments:

we see that, for EEM, signals flipped quickly (whipsaw) from positive to negative acceleration (green line crossing below zero axis) and momentum (blue line) crossing below its 14-period Wilder Moving Average (brown line).

TLT, on the other hand, showed continued strength:

with positive signals for both measurements. With hindsight I should obviously have taken the signals ~1 month earlier on the Mean reversion signals before moving to positive momentum. Here’s the price chart through that period:

I could easily have entered at ~$85 rather than the current $87 had I taken the mean reversion signal – but I am still in the evaluation stage of assessing the effectiveness of these mean reversion signals. However, to this point they seem pretty good provided that we can accept a few small losses through whipsaw trades.

Performance of the Darwin Portfolio to date looks like this:

… clearly reflecting the sideways consolidation that we have gone through over the past month or so. We continue to remain ahead of our benchmark AOA Fund.