Darwin 2026 Portfolio Review: 10 April 2026

Merlion, Singapore

It was an eventful week for investors as they reacted to news on events as they developed in the Middle East. US Equities, as represented by SPX (S&P 500 Index), gapped up on Wednesday to test the 6800 level that had been previous support before the recent pullback – this on the belief/hope that there might be a peaceful solution to the war and that oil might start flowing again through the Strait of Hormuz:

This bullish sentiment continued on Thursday but subsided a little on Friday as it became evident that ships were not moving through the Strait and that the anticipated cease-fire might fail.

However, US Equities closed up ~ 3.6% from last week’s close and again sit in the 6800-7000 consolidation range that prevailed through November 2025 to February 2026:

This sentiment prevailed through the global equity markets with Emerging Market Equities gaining 7% on the week and Developed Markets gaining 4.7%. Commodities (DJP) were the biggest losers on the anticipation of lower fuel/energy prices to come.

How this will all play out remains to be seen.

The Darwin Portfolio covers all the major asset classes and had a busy week with the analysis sheet at the end of the week looking like this:

with Momentum Buy signals on International Equity Markets (SCHF and EEM) and Gold (IAU). All other asset classes generated Sell signals including for Commodities (DJP) and US Treasuries (TLT) that were/are held in the portfolio.

Since it was a very volatile week let’s take a look at some of the momentum/acceleration graphs. First of all, Commodities:

that had been generating warning signals in the 2 weeks ahead of recent events with a Hold recommendation on 27 March and a Sell signal last week (2 April). Unfortunately, I ignored these warnings as there was no obvious weakness in short term prices. However I chose to Sell my holdings on Wednesday and to lock in ~$4,500 in profits. I can always re-enter should Oil prices regain their earlier momentum.

TLT is also generating a Sell signal:

TLT is less volatile – so not quite as sensitive to price movement as is Oil (Commodities) – and I chose to sell only a portion of current holdings – triggering a ~$380 loss – so as to balance allocations, but if this trend prevails into next week I will sell the remainder of the shares being held. TLT does generate a ~4.5% annual dividend that is paid monthly.

Developed Market Equities (SCHF) were already held in the Portfolio but EEM (Emerging Markets) also triggered a Buy Signal:

with my hesitation being related to the fact that momentum, despite being positive relative to it’s benchmark, has not been confirmed by a crossing of its Wilder 14-period EMA. I am still monitoring these situations to decide whether I need to change the algorithm to require this confirmation to trigger a Buy recommendation. In this instance I used discretion and chose to add EEM to my holdings.

A similar situation for Gold (IAU):

and, again, I chose to accept the recommendation of the current algorithm and to add a position in Gold to the Portfolio.

Trades this week then look like this (red box):

with current allocations as shown below:

i.e. roughly equal weightings in all holdings with ~$29,000 in Cash (BIL) waiting for the next moves in the market.

Performance to date looks like this:

with the portfolio losing out a little this week, relative to the benchmark AOA Fund, because of it’s holdings in Commodities – but, overall, volatility/risk is lower than the benchmark and IRR to date is close to 40% over this period.

Again, not officially a part of this portfolio, but my $100,000 Portfolio hedge position in SPX Options now looks like this (after adjustments):

I have now removed all my risk in this position with a guaranteed minimum $320 profit – not too bad considering that the objective of a hedge is not really to make money but to limit losses in the portfolio should the markets move against us. With US Equities now trading at higher prices than they were when the position was opened a hedge was (maybe) not required – but insurance for $320 profit isn’t bad insurance!. These Options expire in a week and a move lower by more than 1 Standard Deviation (~180 SPX points or ~2.5%) would generate a profit of at least $2,800. I also have a “lottery ticket” to the upside with $2,800 profit should the SPX close at 6950 next Friday. This is obviously not very likely – although it is close to potential resistance near all-time highs – and is around a 1 Standard Deviation (~2.5%) move to the upside. Since this week’s move was ~3.6% these scenarios are certainly not impossible.