Dirac 2026 Portfolio Review: 1 May 2026

Native Indonesian Plant in Bali, Indonesia.

US Equity markets reached new highs again this week and closed the week a little less than 1% higher than last week’s close. When we take a look at sector performance over this period:

we see that Energy (XLE) was the clear leader.

Unfortunately I am not presently holding this ETF in the portfolio, but let’s take a look at current recommendations from the momentum/acceleration model being used to manage this portfolio:

where we see that XLE is showing as a moderately strong Mean Reversion (“bottom-fishing”) Buy  recommendation.

To see why it gets this recommendation let’s take a look at the momentum/acceleration graphs:

where we see that acceleration (green line) has just crossed into positive territory and momentum (blue line) is fast heading in that direction and also looking to cross it’s 14-period Wilder Moving Average – this would place it in the stronger Momentum Buy recommendation range. Confirming this strength is the fact that both the MACD and RSI shorter-term indicators are also positive (upper analysis screenshot). Thus, providing XLE is trading above it’s Friday close I will be opening a position in XLE on Monday:

Notice that, after closing out my earlier position in early April, XLE pulled back a little and is now rebounding. In the current environment, with the uncertainty of oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz, this looks like a good time to re-enter this sector. Since price is currently about where I sold the shares in April I may not be better off than if I had held on to the shares but I have avoided a draw-down (with lower volatility) in this sector. I am expecting XLE to at least test it’s prior high at ~$63.

Let’s also take a look at XLK , that has been leading the market over the past month (comparison table above):

where we see strong positive momentum and acceleration that is slowing down a little – so hoping that it is not too overbought at this stage, but maybe need to expect at least a small pullback:

gains to this point have been nice – so hoping not to have to give up much, if any, of those gains.

Finally, XLY (Consumer Discretionary) is not such a volatile sector, so the graphs look like this:

with acceleration only slightly positive, relative momentum slightly negative (does not mean that XLY is not going up – just that it’s not going up as much as it’s benchmark) but above it’s Wilder MA and with MACD and RSI still both in positive territory – this is a comfortable hold for now without too much expectation of big gains:

looking for a bounce and continuation of the bullish trend after the small (normal) pullback.

There were no trades in this portfolio this week and ~$31,000 is being held in Cash (BIL) that I expect to use by adding XLE to the portfolio as early as Monday.