Huygens Recession Portfolio Review: 28 November 2025

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Huygens is sporting a revised asset allocation model.  While it is unlikely one can set up a recession proof portfolio, the following group of Exchanged Traded Funds is my effort to do so.  While the Huygens will still have exposure to equity companies, the bulk of the portfolio is set up to generate income and resist a major market draw down.  The three sectors included in the Huygens are somewhat immune to a weak market as all are needed to survive.

Huygens Asset Allocation Model

This is quite a different array of ETFs.  While I may be jumping the gun as the U.S. stock market may have months to run up, I want to be prepared for less than rosy data.  Each day the market moves up just pushes the Buffett Indicator and Shiller P/E ratio just that much more into the ether.

Huygens Rebalancing Recommendations

Each of the current asset classes holds a few shares of stock.  Here is the plan to manage this “recession” portfolio.

• When the Manual Risk Adjustment worksheet indicates a Buy, fill that ETF to the required limit so as to meet the target percentage.  Eight ETFs are calling for a Buy and each of the eight are within an acceptable percentage of the target.
• SHV is the only ETF I intend to sell and only when cash is needed to purchase a new Buy recommendation.
• Hold excess cash in SHV.

Huygens Performance Data

Since 12/31/2021 the Huygens is close to matching the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of the AOR benchmark.  We are closing in on four years of data.

Based on SPY data the U.S. Equities market has exceeded its historical annual average.

Huygens Risk Ratios

When compared to data from a year ago, the Huygens has fallen behind.  Of particular concern is the lower Jensen Alpha value.  Granted, the 0.55 value is considerable higher than it was last April.

I expect the new asset allocation will not be as highly correlated with market movement.

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