The Kahneman-Tversky Portfolio, that uses the simplest Dual Momentum (DM) model to select one asset from a basket of three, did not perform particularly well in 2022: closing down ~18.4% on the year. While this is slightly less than the ~20% drop in value of US equities over the same period it does not beat […]
Hawking Portfolio Review: 4 November, 2022
The Hawking is an “Income” portfolio based on the income generated from Closed-End-Funds (CEFs). Current holdings look like this:
Using Rotation Data in an Investment Strategy Model
Regular readers of this blog will be aware that I have been trying to define a model that might use data generated from calculations of momentum/relative strength that generates “rotational” graphs that look like this: Where we see a general clockwise rotation of momentum over time (the length of the tail). If we accept that […]
Learning More About Options
This post is a follow-up to comments/requests made in response to my recent post on “Protecting Portfolio Performance” (https://itawealth.com/protecting-portfolio-performance/). Understanding Options can be a difficult subject – but understanding Options is nowhere near as difficult as learning how to make money trading Options – and this is difficult to teach. After discussions with Lowell, I […]
Protecting Portfolio Performance
We are all conscious of the fact that US Equity markets have been in a strong bullish trend since the financial crisis of 2008. With the exception of the 2020 Covid-19 correction – a ~20% pullback in prices from which we recovered very quickly – we have not seen a draw-down of greater than 18% […]
Response to Comments made by ITA member (John Shelton)
In reaction to my recent Rutherford Review post (https://itawealth.com/rutherford-portfolio-review-tranche-5-21-january-2022/ ) John Shelton commented and asked the following questions: “Thx for the very gloomy report. From a psychological perspective, what influence do these trend parameters have on the BHS buy and sell plans? Those of us who study such things know that the Recency Bias would […]
Hindsight is 2021 – A Year-End Retrospective and Lessons for 2022
Portfolio Construction The following screenshot tells us almost all we really need to know about 2021 – it was a great year to invest in US equities: The S&P 500 Index was up 29% on the year with 70 new highs on the way up and only two (short-lived) corrections of over 4%. Likewise, the […]
If Only I Had Been Smart Enough …..
In my recent Rutherford Review Post I spent a little time describing some of the features of Fibonacci Technical Analysis. I mentioned that I don’t usually use this analysis for Investment purposes (other than, maybe, to help me set stop loss orders) but that I sometimes use it for other “trades”. For fun, since I […]
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